MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (4/1)
The first Monday of the Major League Baseball season can be a bit tricky concerning NRFI (No Run First Inning) bets.
All teams in the league (except for the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres) have played three or four games thus far. That means most teams are all trotting out their fourth or fifth starters on Monday. This is not exactly a recipe for NRFI success. As much as I would love to offer up a multitude of options, we have to be judicious about what we invest in. But I do have a couple of games that stand out to me above the rest.
So here are my favorite NRFI recommendations for Monday, April 1.
Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
(Odds courtesy of BetRivers and DraftKings Sportsbooks)
Detroit Tigers (+112) @ New York Mets (-130); Total 8.0 (-118/-103)
Starting Pitchers: Reese Olson vs. Sean Manaea
The records may suggest that the Detroit Tigers and New York Mets are trending in opposite directions, but make no mistake about it: Neither team is doing much at the plate.
Detroit has scored just 11 runs through three games, and they have been particularly bad versus left-handed pitching in the early going. The Tigers are 6-for-25 with no extra-base hits and no walks against southpaws. That should bode well for Sean Manaea, who is making his first start as a Met on Monday.
Meanwhile, the Mets have been even worse at the plate. New York is just 6-for-45 with 15 strikeouts against right-handers so far. Monday’s starter for the Tigers, Reese Olson, was solid in his rookie season. He was especially effective on the road, posting a 3.33 xFIP away from the Motor City.
The Mets have not scored a first-inning run in any of their three games. Pete Alonso is the only one of New York’s top four hitters to record over one total base thus far. Detroit scored a first-inning run in one of three games. However, historically, they have not had much success against Manaea. The veteran hurler has held Tigers hitters to a .180 (9-for-50) batting average.
I expect both of these offenses to continue to struggle on Monday night, so I am taking the NRFI between the Tigers and Mets.
Bet: NRFI (-117 via BetRivers)
Los Angeles Angels (-102) vs. Miami Marlins (-118); Total 8.5 (-118/-102)
Starting Pitchers: Chase Silseth vs. Max Meyer
I must admit that the Los Angeles Angels and Miami Marlins scoring multiple first-inning runs on Sunday made me a bit hesitant to take this bet. However, I still think it is the right play.
The Angels have scored only 11 runs in three games and have yet to score five in any single game. They have also registered only 18 hits thus far. While some of that was the result of Corbin Burnes’s outstanding Opening Day performance, Los Angeles is struggling to generate much offense as it attempts to navigate a post-Shohei Ohtani world.
Miami has also struggled. In particular, last year’s batting champion, Luis Arraez, has started slowly. Arraez has just two hits in 18 at-bats. Until he gets himself out of his current funk, I am fine with fading Miami’s offense when matchups present themselves. I also believe this matchup is favorable for both starting pitchers.
Max Meyer will make his first start since July 2022 on Monday night in Miami. The former third-overall pick in the MLB Draft has the pedigree and stuff to keep the Angels in check, provided he can control his emotions. Meyer features a devastating slider and a plus-changeup.
On the other side, Chase Silseth has shown flashes of potential during his brief tenure in Los Angeles. Silseth posted a 3.96 ERA in 16 appearances last season, including eight starts. Opposing hitters batted just .212 versus Silseth last season. I expect Silseth to follow Meyer’s scoreless first inning with one of his own.
Bet: NRFI (-110 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: