MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (4/29)
There are a dozen games scheduled on Monday in Major League Baseball. I think I have found the right combination of solid pitching and struggling offenses to help us cash a few No Runs First Inning bets.
Here are some of my favorite NRFI plays for Monday, April 29.
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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
Chicago Cubs (+110) @ New York Mets (-130) | O/U 8 (-105/-125)
Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino vs. Jameson Taillon
Our first NRFI play for Monday brings us to the Big Apple, where a couple of former teammates in the Bronx now square off in Queens when the New York Mets and Luis Severino host Jameson Taillon and the Chicago Cubs.
Severino allowed three runs in the first inning of his Mets debut back in March. Since then, however, he has been flawless, pitching four straight scoreless first innings while allowing a sole infield hit.
The Cubs have struggled mightily coming out of the gate in road games. They have scored one total first-inning run in 12 games away from the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, and that was the result of a throwing error. I think that Severino will maintain his solid form while the Cubs continue to come up empty in first innings.
On the other side of the equation, Jameson Taillon makes his third start of the season. He has not allowed a first-inning run in either of his previous two starts. Taillon has given up one earned run in each start, so he enters this game in excellent form as well.
The Mets have scored in the first inning just one time in 11 home games this season. They have also gone seven consecutive games overall without a first-inning tally. In limited meetings, the top-four hitters in the Mets lineup are 3-for-15 versus Taillon, though Pete Alonso does have a home run against him.
I expect both Severino and Taillon to do their part and keep this game scoreless through the first inning.
Bet: NRFI (-120 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Minnesota Twins (-165) @ Chicago White Sox (+140) | O/U 7.5 (-110/-110)
Starting Pitchers: Joe Ryan vs. Garrett Crochet
The Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox come into Monday’s game riding season-high winning streaks. To cash this NRFI bet, we are simply looking for some recent history to repeat itself.
These pitchers squared off just five days ago in a game in which Minnesota won by a score of 6-3. Neither team scored a run in the first inning, as Joe Ryan struck out the side in order, and Garrett Crochet worked around a hit-by-pitch to secure a scoreless frame.
Crochet has struggled in general of late but he has still been a solid NRFI play. He enters Monday’s game, pitching 5-1 to the NRFI. The top-five hitters in Minnesota’s projected lineup have combined to go 2-for-14 with six strikeouts in their matchups with Crochet.
The White Sox have won a season-high three straight since veteran Tommy Pham has joined the club. However, they have still been an NRFI wagon from an offensive standpoint. They failed to score in any first inning in their three wins and have now scored a first-inning run in just one of their past 16 games. Ryan has held Chicago’s top five hitters to a .200 on-base percentage in 40 head-to-head plate appearances.
I expect these trends to continue as Crochet and Ryan start this game off by pitching a scoreless first inning.
Bet: NRFI (-130 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates (-135) @ Oakland Athletics (+114) | O/U 8 (-115/-105)
Starting Pitchers: Bailey Falter vs. Joe Boyle
Our final NRFI bet for Monday has us heading out West, where the Pittsburgh Pirates face the Oakland Athletics in front of a select few fans at the Oakland Coliseum.
Like Severino, Joe Boyle and Bailey Falter allowed first-inning runs in their first starts of the year. And like Severino, both have righted the ship since then.
Boyle has only given up a first-inning run in one of his last four starts. That was his last start against the New York Yankees and came via an Aaron Judge home run. It was just the third career home run allowed by Boyle in 37.2 career innings pitched. He did record three strikeouts in that inning, so I am willing to give him a pass.
The Pirates have an 88 wRC+ in the past seven days and an 84 wRC+ for the season against right-handed pitching. They have the lowest ISO versus righties in the Majors, so they will likely have to string some hits together to record a first-inning run.
Boyle has held opposing hitters to a .220 average in his brief career. That includes a .167 mark and a .208 on-base percentage for right-handed hitters. Bryan Reynolds may be the only left-handed bat Boyle faces in the first inning. As long as Boyle can harness his control, he should be able to navigate a clean inning.
Falter served up six runs in his first outing of the season. He has given up a total of four runs in four games since, including four straight scoreless first innings. On Monday, Falter faces the worst MLB offense West of Chicago in the Oakland A’s.
Oakland strikes out almost as often as they reach base against left-handed pitchers this season. They have a 24.7% strikeout rate and a .258 on-base percentage when a lefty is on the mound. Oakland scored one first-inning run in nine games where a left-hander has started. That was an unearned run. In those nine first innings, they generated just five hits.
I believe both pitchers will get the better of these early matchups and secure our final NRFI bet of the night.
Bet: NRFI (-115 via DraftKings Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: