MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (4/8)
A new week brings out the beginnings of a new series throughout Major League Baseball. There are a few matchups that feature some struggling offenses and quality pitchers. These are games I am placing some NRFI (No Runs First Inning) bets on. Below are my three favorite NRFI plays for Monday's slate.
Monday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
(Odds courtesy of BetRivers Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook)
Seattle Mariners (+104) @ Toronto Blue Jays (-122) | O/U 8 (-114/-106)
Starting Pitchers: Luis Castillo v. Jose Berrios
The Seattle Mariners continue their road trip when they head up north to face the Toronto Blue Jays on Monday. Both teams send their Opening Day starters to the mound. While there are no guarantees, that is always a positive for NRFI enthusiasts. Castillo and Berrios are a combined 3-1 pitching to the NRFI thus far in 2024.
Even more encouraging are the current offensive struggles of both clubs. The Mariners and Blue Jays have combined to score a run in just three of 20 games so far this year.
None of Seattle's top three hitters - J.P. Crawford, Julio Rodriguez and Jorge Polanco - have an on-base percentage higher than .262 in the early going. Toronto's top three (George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero and Bo Bichette) have not been much better. The trio is walking at a decent rate, but all three have batting averages below .200 so far this year.
Since 2022, Castillo has allowed a 7.1 percent walk rate, while Berrios has been even stingier at 6.3 percent. With the way both offenses are struggling and both starting pitchers attack the strike zone, I like the NRFI in this game.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-113 at BetRivers)
Detroit Tigers (+105) @ Pittsburgh Pirates (-125) | O/U 8.5 (-105/-115)
Starting Pitchers: Reese Olson v. Mitch Keller
Monday's matchup between the Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates pits two of this season's early surprises against one another. The Tigers enter this matchup at 6-3, while the Pirates lead the National League Central Division with an 8-2 record.
While both teams are off to hot starts, it is not because of early offense. Each team has scored a first-inning run on just one occasion so far. Detroit's regular top three hitters (Parker Meadows, Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson) have combined to hit just .161 (15-for-93) in the early going.
Pittsburgh's normal top three of Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds and Ke'Bryan Hayes have been considerably better, hitting .296. However, that has yet to translate into first-inning success.
Pirates' ace Mitch Keller has struggled through two starts, posting an ugly 6.55 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. However, he has been able to pitch to the NRFI on both occasions. He was elite last season early in games as well, pitching to a 3.01 xFIP when facing opponents the first time through the order.
Reese Olson has a solid 3.79 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in just over 100 career Major League innings. Olson had held opposing hitters to a .281 wOBA (weighted on-base percentage) in that time and has no glaring splits to worry about. I believe this is a solid NRFI spot, especially at nearly even money.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-105 at DraftKings)
Chicago Cubs (+114) at San Diego Padres (-135) | O/U 7.5 (-115/105)
Starting Pitchers: Javier Assad v. Yu Darvish
My third and final NRFI bet for Monday features the Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres. Unlike the previous two bets, this matchup is between two offenses that have been above average in scoring first-inning runs. The Cubs scored in three of nine games, while San Diego has pushed a run across in six of 12 first innings. So why am I on the NRFI?
For me, it is all about this pitching matchup. Yu Darvish takes the rubber for the Padres. He has gotten off to a hot start this season, both overall and in terms of NRFI. Darvish has allowed just five runs (four earned) through three starts and has yet to surrender a first-inning run.
All Javier Assad has done since entering the Majors in 2022 is pitch to a 2.94 ERA in 153 innings. He has pitched to the NRFI in 15 of 19 career starts, including nine of 11 since the beginning of last season. Assad has been great on the road, posting a career 2.55 ERA and limiting hitters to a .276 wOBA.
Even though both offenses have been productive early in games to start the season, I like each starter to get the job done in the first inning. Give me the Cubs-Padres NRFI as my final play of the evening.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-120 on DraftKings)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: