MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (5/27)
Monday is Memorial Day in the United States. Not only is it a day to honor those who have sacrificed for this country, but it is a day many associate with Major League Baseball.
This year’s Memorial Day slate has 11 games on it. MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) bets have been kind to us lately, so let’s dig into the schedule to find some matchups to take advantage of. Below are a couple of my favorite MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) plays for Monday, May 27.
Monday’s Best MLB MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)
Kansas City Royals (+143) at Minnesota Twins (-167) | O/U 8 (-112/-109)
Starting Pitchers: Alec Marsh vs. Joe Ryan
The Minnesota Twins host the Kansas City Royals in a clash of AL Central foes on Monday afternoon. Both Joe Ryan and Alec Marsh won their last starts, and will look to build on that momentum in this game.
Ryan is only 6-4 pitching to the NRFI this season. However, I remain optimistic he can get through the first inning unscathed. Ryan pitched a 1-2-3 inning with two strikeouts in his first start of the year against this same Kansas City club. He also has excellent career numbers against the hitters at the top of the Royals order.
Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez have combined to hit just .196 in 46-lifetime at-bats against Ryan. Three of the four (Perez being the lone exception) also have considerably worse splits on the road this year, which should work in Ryan’s favor. I expect him to set the tone and keep Kansas City scoreless through the first inning on Monday.
The Twins are a team that platoons several of their starters based on whether their opponents have a left-handed or right-handed starting pitcher. That has not resulted in much first-inning production of late. Minnesota has scored just one run in their last nine games when facing a right-hander. A strong platoon strategy may also backfire with Marsh on the mound.
Marsh has extreme reverse splits so far this year. He has held lefty hitters to a .217 weighted on-base average, compared to a .377 mark for righties. To put those numbers in perspective, there are 156 qualified Major League hitters this season. Only one has a wOBA lower than .217, while just 17 have a wOBA higher than .377.
The second-year Major Leaguer has also been a solid NRFI pitcher thus far in 2024. Marsh has held opponents off the scoreboard in eight of nine first innings this year, including five in a row. I expect him to match Ryan’s zero with one of his own on Monday.
Bet: MLB NRFI (-121 at BetRivers Sportsbook)
Washington Nationals (+166) at Atlanta Braves (-198) | O/U 8.5 (-114/-106)
Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker vs. Charlie Morton
This NRFI bet has several moving parts on the offensive side of things for Atlanta. So, let’s start with the side that is easier to project: Charlie Morton against the Washington Nationals offense.
Morton is 8-1 to the NRFI this season. His only miss was also the only game this season in which he pitched on four days’ rest. Perhaps fatigue was a factor for the 40-year-old, who only lasted three innings in that start. That should not be an issue on Monday, as Morton will be pitching on five days’ rest.
The Washington Nationals have been absent offensively in the first inning in recent weeks. They have been especially atrocious against right-handed pitchers. So far in May, they have a -3 wRC+ in the first inning when facing right-handers. Nationals hitters are 5-for-56 (.089) with a double and 20 strikeouts in that split. I trust Morton to get through the top of the order without giving up a run.
Atlanta’s offense has not been much better when facing left-handers in the first inning this month, albeit in a smaller sample size and with some qualifiers. Braves hitters are 1-for-15 (.067) and have accounted for a wRC+ of 4 under these conditions.
These statistics have been compiled without Sean Murphy, who is likely to return to the lineup on Monday after being out since Opening Day. Austin Riley should also be ready to join the club on Monday after missing the last 13 games. However, their returns are dampened by the loss of leadoff hitter and reigning MVP Ronald Acuna Jr.
Acuna tore his ACL on Sunday and will miss the remainder of the season. Losing Acuna is a huge blow, regardless of the remaining firepower in the Braves lineup. I expect Ozzie Albies to lead off on Monday, likely followed by Riley and Marcell Ozuna, so the Braves will still have plenty of pop at the top of the lineup. However, rookie hurler Mitchell Parker has been up to the task early in games, especially against right-handed hitters.
Parker allowed first-inning runs in two of his first three Major League starts last month. However, he has posted four consecutive scoreless first frames since, surrendering just a lone infield hit over those four innings. Parker enters this game allowing a .216 weighted on-base average (wOBA) in first innings.
He also has reverse splits and has fared very well against right-handed hitters as a whole. Through his first seven starts, opposing righties have combined for a .264 wOBA against Parker.
Even though the Braves have a reputation as an elite offense and should get one or two starters back, I believe the loss of Acuna as well as their recent offensive woes will ultimately enable Parker to toss a scoreless inning and help us cash this NRFI bet.
Bet: MLB NRFI (-106 at FanDuel Sportsbook)