MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (9/23)
It is the final Monday of the 2024 MLB regular season and that means this will be my last No Run First Inning (NRFI) picks article of the season. First and foremost, a sincere thank you to all who have read and shared throughout the season. I am currently 35-23 on NRFI plays, so hopefully I have been able to help you in some way this year.
We only have a four-game slate on Monday, so there is not a whole lot to choose from. I did find one NRFI I like enough to play, so let's finish the year strong and keep the win rate over 60%.
Here is my favorite NRFI play for Monday, September 23.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Monday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)
Boston Red Sox (+100) at Toronto Blue Jays (-120) | O/U 8 (-110/-110)
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Houck vs. Chris Bassitt
The Toronto Blue Jays host the Boston Red Sox on Monday night. Boston is still technically alive for a playoff berth, but it would take a modern miracle for them to get there. Toronto has been eliminated from playoff competition.
Chris Bassitt gets the start for the Blue Jays on Monday night. He will be opposed by Tanner Houck. This will be the third head-to-head meeting between Bassitt and Houck this year. The NRFI cashed in each of the previous two clashes between these two starting pitchers.
Boston has been struggling early in games against right-handed pitchers in recent weeks. In the last two weeks, Boston hitters are a combined 6-for-34 (.176) with one extra-base hit when facing a right-hander in the first inning. They have scored a first-inning run just once in their past 12 games overall.
Bassitt also has solid numbers against most of the hitters he should contend with on Monday. Tyler O'Neill missed Sunday's doubleheader due to a back injury. It is unclear whether he will play on Monday. Bassitt has handled the slugger well in their previous encounters. O'Neill is 1-for-12 lifetime against Bassitt.
Bassitt has held the combination of Jarren Duran, Romy Gonzalez and Connor Wong to a 3-for-23 mark, including nine strikeouts. The only Boston batter who has had success against Bassitt likely to hit in the first inning is Masataka Yoshida. He is 6-for-16 in his career versus Bassitt. I believe Bassitt can hold up his end of the bargain against a struggling Boston team that he has historically handled.
Tanner Houck looks to put a bow on his most successful Major League season to date. Part of Houck's success has been his ability to get off to fast starts. Houck is 24-5 to the NRFI this year, including an impressive 13-1 mark on the road.
The Blue Jays are limping toward the finish line offensively. Toronto has been held scoreless in the first inning in 14 of their last 15 games. They have scored a total of 11 runs over their past five games, including just five in a three-game sweep at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 5-for-15 in his career versus Houck, but facing Houck has been a problem for Toronto's other hitters. The rest of their projected lineup is a combined 4-for-36 against the right-hander. I expect Houck to keep the Blue Jays off the scoreboard early and help us cash one final NRFI to close out the 2024 season.
Bet: MLB NRFI (-120 via Caesars Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: