MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/12)

New York – the city with bright lights… and underperforming baseball teams. The Mets and Yankees have both failed to meet their offensive expectations relative to their potential, as both rank in the bottom half of the MLB in OPS, SLG, BA, hits and doubles.

These teams are simply not excelling at getting runners on base and driving them in, which is a large reason why I’m looking to fade both offenses via the NRFI market this Friday evening.

2023 NRFI (15-7, +5.29 Units)

Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees – 7:05 p.m. ET

Pitching matchup: Trevor Kelley vs. Gerrit Cole

Though Cole did get touched up a bit for the first time this season in his last outing against the Rays, he was dominant through the first four innings, not surrendering his first run until the fifth frame. Most of the damage the Rays’ offense did came from the bottom four hitters in their lineup. So Cole had success against the hitters factoring in this NRFI play. His stuff has been elite this year, ranking in the top 30^th percentile in xERA, xSLG, barrel %, K% and chase rate, and he’s surrendering his lowest rate of home runs since he joined the Yankees. I like Cole to roll through the Rays’ lineup through the first inning as he did last week in Tampa.

Trevor Kelley, a right-handed journeyman, will get the ball for the Rays in what will actually be his first-ever start at the Major League level. Though he has admittedly not been great during his stints in the MLB, this is more of a fade of the Yankees’ offense and a belief in the Rays’ overall pitching philosophy. Kevin Cash and his coaching staff do a better job than anyone else in the MLB at finding the right lanes for their pitchers to succeed. Reclamation project after reclamation project, they spawn elite relievers and pitchers that have incredible success as “openers.”

Taking away their last series against Oakland, the Yankees are averaging only 3.9 runs per ballgame, which would be good for 27^th in the MLB. The Rays’ staff has historically given the Yankees fits since Cash took over as manager. I don’t anticipate the Yankees having offensive success, no matter who’s on the mound for Tampa.

Pick: NRFI (-155)

New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals – 7:05 p.m. ET

Pitching matchup: Tylor Megill vs. Mackenzie Gore

MacKenzie Gore is one of the best young pitchers in baseball that many casual fans aren’t all that familiar with because he plays for the Nationals. The former No. 3 overall pick in 2017 has been really good this season, ranking in the top 30th percentile in xSLG, barrel%, whiff% and K%. In other words, he’s missing bats and not getting hit all that hard. He’s pitched against the Mets once already this year and had success, going 6.0 IP and surrendering only one run (it did not come in the first inning), and striking out 10 batters on the road. I like him to again have a clean first frame against a struggling Mets offense in this matchup.

Much like Kelley above, Tylor Megill doesn’t necessarily have the stats or the pedigree that will blow you away (though his hard hit % does rank in the 72^nd percentile). Still, he should be able to succeed against a pretty bad Nationals offense. The Nationals are at the bottom of the barrel in most offensive categories, ranking 25th or worse in runs, OPS, SLG, SB, BB, HRs and doubles. They have a respectable overall batting average as a team, and they don’t strike out a ton. However, they simply don’t have the power bats in their lineup to score runs via XBH. It’s tough to string singles together to score runs when you’re also not getting on base via the walk. Similar to the first game, I like this play regardless of who’s on the bump for the Mets.

Pick: NRFI (-105)

Check out our other best bets for Friday:

• MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
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