MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (5/5)

Not all NRFI bets are made the same way, and a full Friday slate gives us plenty of opportunity to approach this market however we want to.

I’m taking a similar approach in both of my plays by backing one pitcher who has been completely dominant this season and one who has gotten off to a slow 2023 campaign but is primed for positive regression.

Here are my best bets in the NRFI market for Wednesday, May 5.

2023 NRFI Results: (13-5, +5.79 Units)

Friday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox – 7:05 p.m. EST

Pitching matchup: Zack Wheeler vs. Chris Sale

Zack Wheeler’s performance on the mound this season has allowed him to surpass Aaron Nola as the ace of the Phillies, in my opinion. Wheeler has been dominant this season, posting a 3-1 record with a 3.86 ERA (3.10 xERA). His Baseball Savant page might make the argument that his analytics make him the best pitcher in all of baseball this year. All of his following metrics rank in the top 25th percentile: hard hit %, barrel %, whiff %, K%, average exit velo, xERA, and xSLG.

His extremely high spin rates (73rd percentile for curves, 83rd percentile for fastball) and his extension off the mound (96th percentile) have made him exceptionally hard to hit. The ball seems to jump out of his hand and across home plate much quicker than the average pitcher. Wheeler has been everything you can ask for out of an ace, and I think his success continues tonight.

On the flip side, Chris Sale is probably the only Boston pitcher that I want to put my money behind in any capacity this year. While it’s true that Sale has had a rocky start since his return from injury (2-2 with a 6.75 ERA), his underlying metrics suggest that he hasn’t been that bad. His xERA is nearly 2 points lower, at 4.94, and he’s still shown the ability to generate the swing and miss (whiff %, chase rate %, K% and hard hit % all rank in the top half of the league).

I like that he will be able to neutralize some of the power at the top of the Phillies’ batting order with lefty-lefty matchups against Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. As mentioned, I’ve had success backing pitchers that have been off to a slow start this year. I also think we’re getting some extra value on this line because of the offensive firepower throughout these two lineups.

Pick: NRFI (-111)

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Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros – 10:10 p.m. EST

Pitching matchup: Luis Castillo vs. Cristian Javier

Cristian Javier of the Astros is another pitcher I’m targeting for positive regression. He’s gotten off to somewhat of a slow start after bursting onto the scene as one of the best pitchers in the AL last year. Still, his chase rate, K%, BB%, and whiff% all rank in the top 40th percentile, and his ERA is a respectable 3.48.

What’s changed this season is that he’s been getting hit harder. Yet, much like the previous pitchers I’ve backed for positive regression, I believe this may be partly due to the new pace of play regulations. Talent will eventually level itself out. I’m fully expecting Javier to return to a form closer to what we saw last season when his xBA, xSLG, xERA and hard-hit % all ranked at the very top of the MLB. I like him to have a clean first inning against a Mariners lineup that he has plenty of experience against.

Like Wheeler, Luis Castillo has been filthy this season, with a 1.82 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP. His metrics tell you this is no fluke, with his xERA, whiff %, K%, BB% and chase rate all in the top 30^th percentile.

The Astros’ offense has snuck under the radar as not being very good so far without the services of Jose Altuve, ranking 20^th or worse in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS and HRs. T-Mobile Park also sits dead last in the MLB in offensive park factors, ranking well below average in runs scored, HRs, extra-base hits and xWOBA since 2021. This game features the lowest total on the board for Friday, and I expect both of these pitchers to live up to that expectation.

Pick: NRFI (-142)

Check out our other best bets for Friday:

• MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
• MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
• NBA Playoffs Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NHL Playoffs Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions