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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/15)

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Three AL East teams highlight today’s NRFI plays, with the Yankees traveling to Pittsburg and the Blue Jays hosting the Red Sox. Despite the perception of the Blue Jays offensive firepower, Toronto actually ranks 2nd overall in NRFI success rate at 60%; the Pirates are also top-10 in that category at 52%, which are trends that I look for to be in our favor after settling on spots that I like. 3 out of the 4 teams will be in their noticeably inferior hitting splits against the opposing RHP (Red Sox hit pretty evenly no matter the handedness of the pitcher), and these games will be played in ballparks that both rank 15th or lower in HR rate since 2021. These games also represent two of the lower totals on the board, at 7.5 runs for the 1st game and 8 runs for the second game, which is another key indicator that I look for.

MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions

Pittsburg Pirates vs New York Yankees

This play is more a fade of the Yankees offense than it is backing Pirates starting pitcher Johan Oviedo, though he does profile as a pitcher that should do well in this spot. Oviedo ranks around league average in most underlying statistics, but his average exit velocity puts him in the top 1/3 of the league. His ground ball rate is also a tick under 50%, which is well above league average and works well in his favor as a pitcher that doesn’t generate a ton of strikeouts. But as I stated, this is more a fade of a Yankees offense that ranks bottom-5 in OBP and AVG, and ranks bottom-10 in OPS and SLG despite ranking 7th overall in HR, which is almost impressive. Aaron Judge did hit a Grand Slam yesterday, but he has not been the same at the plate since returning from injury, and I’m not afraid of backing Oviedo against him in the opening frame of this one, especially because the Yankees hit RHP demonstrably worse than they do LHP.

Meanwhile, AL Cy Young favorite Gerrit Cole will get the ball for the Yankees to start. Cole has been dominant in nearly every aspect as a starting pitcher, holding a 2.79 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP. His xERA and K% rank in the top quartile of the league, and his chase rate sits at the 65th percentile. His walk rate of 6.1% is good for the 84th percentile, and although his hard hit metrics sit around league average, his xBA of 0.232 puts him in the 65th percentile. Everything I said about the Yankees offense (besides the HR numbers) can essentially be copy and pasted right here, as the Pirates are squarely a bottom-10 offense in terms of HR, AVG, OBP, OPS and OBP. The Pirates will also be in their inferior hitting splits in this one, as they get on base and hit for average at a lower rate against RHP. I expect for Cole to roll through this lineup all night long, with no exception in the first inning.

Pick: No Run 1st Inning (-130 @ FanDuel, Bet3650)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox

Two teams that have not frequented my articles very often face off in an AL East showdown, with Jose Berrios taking the mound against Brayan Bello. Berrios has bounced back from a tough 2022 season with a very solid 2023 campaign, reflected by his 3.63 ERA. He has really improved on his ability to avoid hard contact this year, ranking above the 70th percentile in both average exit velocity and hard hit%. His whiff% and K% both sit around league average, but his chase rate ranks in the top quartile of the league. He’s also done a good job of not giving out free passes, ranking above the 70th percentile in walk rate. Berrios has also been very good the first time though the order, as batters are hitting just 0.218 against him in their first opportunities.

Brayan Bello has been a revelation for the Red Sox in his first full year as a starter, and figured to be a fixture in that rotation for years to come. Like Berrios, Bello also does not get hit particularly hard, ranking in the top 1/3 of the league in barrel% and average exit velo. He also excels at generating ground balls, as his ground ball rate of 56.1% ranks in the 92nd percentile – so even when balls do get hit hard, more times than not they are on the ground. His 6.4% walk rate is just shy of the 80th percentile, and his 60th percentile chase rate is nothing to scoff at, either. The Blue Jays fare much worse against RHP like Bello, whose numbers are also much better against right-handed hitters, which should serve him well against this righty-heavy Blue Jays lineup.

Pick: No Run 1st Inning (-113 @ FanDuel)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:


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