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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Friday (9/29)

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I’m bringing a trio of NRFI plays to the plate on this final Friday of the regular season, with huge playoff implications in play for teams all across the league. I’ve featured a few of those teams here in the Padres (albeit on life support), the Mariners and the Rangers. I feel like the pitchers have the decisive advantage in these types of games that tend to be played more conservatively, with all the pressure on the guys at the plate. I’ve also taken advantage of some pitchers that have decisive road/home and righty/lefty splits, and a couple of relievers that have performed very well in “opener” roles. Let’s sweep the board on this Friday and build some momentum as we transition to postseason play.

2023 NRFI Record: 52-49, -5.60 Units

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Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox – No Run 1st Inning (-120 at DraftKings)

John Means has only appeared in three games this season, working his way back from injury for Baltimore’s playoff run, but he has looked really good in those three starts. He’s went at least five innings in each of his starts, allowing only one earned run in two out of his three starts. He doesn’t have a large enough sample size to draw too many conclusions from, but his 32.7% hard hit rate and 85.4 MPH average exit velocity are both among the elite pitchers in those categories. His chase rate of nearly 34% would also fall just shy of the 90th percentile, if he qualified. His walk rate of 6.1% also tells me that he has command of the strike zone and he’s not allowing the free pass. His numbers have been extremely good against the top 3 batters in the order through his first 3 starts, and he’ll be pitching against a Red Sox lineup that fares worse against lefties than they do righties.

Swingman Nick Pivetta will start for the Red Sox tonight, who is actually having one of the better seasons in his 7-year career. His 4.25 ERA is much better than his career mark, and it actually doesn’t speak to the underlying metrics that suggest he’s been a better pitcher than that, and perhaps gotten some bad luck this season.

For starters, his 0.233 xBA ranks in the top quartile of all pitchers, and his xERA is lower than his actual ERA by nearly 0.25 runs. His swing and miss stuff is elite, with a 73rd percentile whiff percentage, 87th percentile chase rate and 91st percentile strikeout rate. Pivetta’s numbers have been better on the road, as batters are hitting sub-.200 against him in their first plate appearance, and his numbers against the top three batters in the order are actually better than his numbers against the bottom of the order. Add in the fact that Baltimore hits lefties better than righties (surprising for a very versatile lineup), and they may be looking to rest some of their guys after clinching the #1 seed in the AL, and I think this lines up perfectly for Pivetta to have a nice start here.

Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres – No Run 1st Inning (-115 at FanDuel)

The White Sox will send out Dylan Cease to make his final start in what has been an abysmal season. Cease has been a better pitcher than his 4.66 ERA indicates, with his xERA coming in 0.59 runs lower than his actual ERA and his xBA of 0.238 ranking above league average. Cease continued to be able to get batters to whiff with the best of them, ranking in the top quartile of all pitchers in both whiff% and K%. He was also able to avoid barrels for the most part, as his 6.4% barrel rate is good for the 75th percentile.

Cease’s numbers are significantly better at home, and most of his trouble this season came when batters had seen him more than once, as batters are hitting just 0.214 off him the first time around. The Padres hit righties far worse than they hit lefties, and I think the fact that they technically haven’t been eliminated from playoff contention actually adds pressure and hurts them in this spot. I’ll back Cease in a no-pressure spot in his last outing of the year.

In line with the first game, I’m backing another swingman/opener for the Padres in Nick Martinez. Martinez has gotten a ton of work this year as both a starter and reliever, and he might hold the crown as the pitcher that gave up the least hard-hit contact in the entire MLB. His hard hit% ranks in the 96th percentile and his average exit velocity puts him in the 99th percentile. Should batters be lucky enough to barrel his balls up, his 90th percentile GB rate of 54.3% tells me that those hard hit balls aren’t doing much damage. He can get batters to look silly too, with an 88th percentile chase rate and a whiff% that ranks in the top-third of pitchers. The White Sox offense has been listless all year long, ranking bottom-five in AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG, and they hit righties worse than they hit lefties. I love Martinez in this spot, and I see him rolling through the opening frame unscathed.

Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers – No Run 1st Inning (-130 at DraftKings)

Bryan Woo, a rookie RHP from Cal Poly, will get the start for Seattle tonight in a must-win game for the Mariners to keep pace in the AL Wild Card race, and I think he’s the right man for the job. Woo’s 4.39 ERA is nowhere indicative of how good he’s been this year, which is more reflected in his 3.45 xERA and 0.222 xBA, both of which rank in the top 25% of pitchers. His barrel%, hard hit% and average exit velo all rank above the 74th percentile, so he’s not getting hit hard consistently. His walk rate, whiff% and K% are all comfortably above league average as well, telling me he’s got good control of the strike zone.

Woo has been better at home than on the road, as batters are hitting only 0.191 against him their first time around. The Rangers are pretty balanced offensively, but they do hit for average and get on base at a lower clip against RHP. With both teams playing for big stakes, both in the division and in the wild card, I expect for this game to have a very similar game to last night’s pitching duel, and I like Woo to have a great start.

Nathan Eovaldi has tailed off a little bit since his torrid start to the season, but he’s worked his way back from injury to remain at the top of this Rangers rotation. Eovaldi’s xERA and xBA are both comfortably above the 60th percentile, and although most of his other metrics are floating around league average, Eovaldi is one of the best in the game at keeping the ball on the ground. His GB rate of 51.6% ranks in the 85th percentile, so even if batters are making solid contact, it’s going straight into the ground more than half of the time. The Mariners have quietly been an underwhelming offense for some of the names in their lineup, ranking 15th or worse in AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG, and they have far less success against righties than they do lefties. Eovaldi has also fared better in his road starts than his home ones, which is another feather in his cap for this start.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday:

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