MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Monday (7/17)
After a long layoff on these articles due to the All-Star Break, we return this Monday to an MLB slate of 10 games. We have a couple of interesting pitching angles, including the debut of Quinn Priester, as well as the return of Grayson Rodriguez.
Let’s dive into the slate deeper and find our favorite NRFI bets of the day.
Monday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pitching matchup: Logan Webb vs. Brandon Williamson
Brandon Williamson has not had a great start to his MLB career, but we are betting on the matchup in this one. The Giants’ offense has been below average against lefties in 2023 with a 93 wRC+. Many of their best hitters are left-handed, and they heavily platoon these options. Williamson has also had his struggles in the beginning of games, but we need a clean first from him here in this one.
On the other side of the matchup is Logan Webb, who has been fantastic in 2023. In the last few games, the Reds’ offense has struggled to score and, over the last two weeks, has an 86 wRC+. Webb has succeeded with a career-best walk rate to go along with a near career-high K%. He is allowing a few more long balls than usual, but overall he is having one of his best seasons yet. He has allowed a 0.286 wOBA for the first time through the order in his career. While the numbers are a bit over 0.300 in 2023, they are still plenty good. The upstart Reds are hitting a bit of a skid, and Webb should be able to help continue those struggles along.
Bet: NRFI (+115)
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Pitching matchup: Jesus Luzardo vs. Miles Mikolas
While the ERA is a bit higher than it has been in previous seasons, the underlying numbers for Miles Mikolas have not changed a ton. He does not post massive K numbers, but he limits walks and homers, and that should lead to a sub-four ERA. He has allowed a 0.278 wOBA the first time through the order in his career and typically starts games strong. The Marlins’ offense is largely league-average and succeeds a bit differently than most, as their ISO is the third lowest in the league.
Jesus Luzardo is taking the ball for the Marlins, and he’s been absolutely fantastic this season. The K numbers have remained high, and he has paired that with a walk decrease, which has made his numbers feel more sustainable. His 2023 numbers the first time through the order are elite, with a 0.230 wOBA allowed this season. He should have no issue keeping this going to throw another clean first frame.
Bet: NRFI (+100)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:
- MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
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