MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (5/13)
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
Saturday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins – 1:10 ET
Nick Lodolo vs. Sandy Alcantara
The Miami Marlins are starting last year’s Cy Young winner, who is a perfect 7-0 this year regarding NRFIs.
On paper, it may seem like Sandy Alcantara has not performed as well as last year; while that may be true to some degree, I think it’s more so that he is getting unlucky. Alcantara is 1-3, with a 4.53 ERA season which is exceptionally high compared to last year’s (2.28). His advanced metrics show he is getting unlucky, as his xERA is 4.27, and his xFIP is 3.85.
On the opposing side, the Cincinnati Reds should be starting Nick Lodolo. Lodolo had an impressive rookie season and had a lot of hype coming to this season. The 25-year-old lefty has had a disappointing start to 2023 but is going up against one of the worst offenses in the league.
Let’s get a quick six-outs for the NRFI.
Bet: NRFI (-145)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles – 7:05 ET
Roansy Contreras vs. Tyler Wells
It may be safe to say these two teams are the biggest surprises of the 2023 season. Baltimore showed signs of an up-and-coming ballclub last season, while the Pirates have come out of nowhere. Both teams are over .500 and in second place in their respective divisions.
The offense is what has been carrying these teams thus far. Both teams rank inside the top 15 in OBP, wOBA, and wRC+, and today I believe we see that on display due to the below-average pitching matchup.
The Pirates will be starting Roansy Contreras. Contreras is 3-3 with and WRA of 4.74 and xFIP of 5.08. While he doesn’t give up the long ball very often, he allows a lot of contact. His BABIP (.336) is among the highest in the league.
On the flip side, Baltimore is starting Tyler Wells. Wells is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA. His ERA can be a bit misleading as you look into the advanced analytics. Despite a low ERA, his xERA is 4.94, and his xFIP is 4.53, meaning we may see a bit of regression coming his way. Wells has a Barrel% of 9.9% and a HardHit% of 40.5%, both on the high side.
Between the two starters, they have a combined 13 starts and have allowed a run in the first inning in seven of those starts. Let’s see if we can have some fireworks early!
Bet: YRFI (-115)
Check out our other best bets for Saturday:
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
- NHL Playoffs Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- Matthew Freedman’s NHL Playoffs Player Prop Bet Picks
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