MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (7/8)
With only two full days of games until the All-Star Break, let's dive into our favorite NRFI bets of the day.
Saturday's Best No Runs First Inning Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Wells vs. Sonny Gray
In this Orioles-Twins matchup, we have some of the best first-inning pitchers in the game, if that makes sense. Looking at their first-inning splits, both Wells and Gray have been great at limiting damage in the first inning, especially Sonny Gray.
Opponents are hitting .105 in the first inning against Gray, the lowest in the MLB, while opponents’ OBP is .190, which is also the 4th lowest. In Gray’s 24 starts, he has only allowed a first-inning run in three of them and once in 12 home starts.
Tyler Wells may not be as dominant as Gray, but he’s also been good in the first inning. Opponents have a batting average of .175, which ranks in the top 20, and has allowed the 5th lowest OBP. The one downside of Wells is the HR ball. Wells HR/9 is 1.92, the third highest among today’s starters.
Good news for us, both lineups have hit a cold spell over the past two weeks. Both Baltimore and Minnesota rank in the league’s bottom half in batting average and runs scored.
Bet: NRFI (-120)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Pitching Matchup: Ranger Suarez vs. Braxton Garrett
On the surface, Braxton Garrett looks to be one of the better-starting pitchers for Miami. He is 4-2 with a 3.61 ERA but has faced one of the easier schedules. His four wins have come against Cleveland, Kansas City, Washington, and Boston, three of those four all rank in the bottom third in the league in wRC+, wOBA, and ISO, with the lone exception being the Red Sox.
One thing the Phillies have been able to do this season is hit lefties.
Phillies Ranks vs. LHP
- Runs: 10th (113)
- Hits: 3rd (229)
- HRs: 3rd (38)
- ISO: 5th (.188)
As you can see above, the Phillies are a step above the teams Garrett has faced in the past. I hope Philly can jump to a quick lead, especially with Kyle Schwarber at the top of the lineup. Schwarber is one of the best against LHP as 10 of his 22 HRs have been against lefties and 14 of his 22 HRs have come on the road.
Bet: YRFI (+100)
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