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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (6/29)

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Last night we were lucky enough to see one of the rarest events in baseball history as Domingo German fo the New York Yankees threw the 24th Perfect Game in MLB history. While we are unlikely to see another on today’s 12-game slate, all we need for our NRFI bets to hit is a clean first inning.

Let’s dive into the slate coming off a tough Monday where we went 0-2. The Dodgers/Rockies game has some of the most interesting odds (+145) I have even seen in the NRFI market. While I can’t truly get behind this one, it’s rare to see odds that long on these bets.

Season to Date: 23-24

Thursday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

San Diego Padres vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Pitching matchup: Joe Musgrove vs. Luis Ortiz

The Padres’ offense has been one of the bigger enigmas of the 2023 season so far. They have seen some of their best hitters struggle at various points in the season and haven’t seemed to put it all together. The top of their order is still elite, making this tough on Luis Ortiz, but Ortiz seemingly has enough talent to make it through. The numbers do not pop off the page for Ortiz, but he has been a bit better lately with a reduction in walks. He has had some first-time-through-the-order struggles as well, but I believe the future is bright for the righty, and this game will showcase that talent.

Joe Musgrove is getting the ball for the Padres, and he has excelled the first time through the order with a wOBA allowed of 0.296 in those situations. Across the last 30 days, the Pirates have an 84 wRC+ which is bottom-10 in the league. Musgrove has not quite been his elite self in 2023, but everything points to him having a ton of success in this one.

Bet: NRFI (-115)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs

Pitching matchup: Taijuan Walker vs. Kyle Hendricks

This is one of several games on the board that are actually at plus odds for their NRFI bet. While I understand the reasoning behind the others, this one does not make a ton of sense to me. Kyle Hendricks has looked like his vintage “Professor” self, even if the Ks are drastically lower than we are used to. He has allowed a 0.292 wOBA for the first time through the order in his career. While they have been better of late, the Phillies are still right around league average offensively in the last 30 days.

On the other side of this game, Taijuan Walker gets the ball for Philadelphia. The Cubs have been a bottom-10 offense in the last month with an 89 wRC+. Walker overall walks a few too many hitters and doesn’t get the strikeouts we would like to see, but he has managed to turn himself into a league-average arm. He has allowed a 0.298 wOBA the first time through the order in 2023. With the struggles of the Cubs’ offense, he should be able to improve on that number today.

Bet: NRFI (+105)

Make sure to check out our other favorite bets for Thursday:

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