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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Thursday (8/31)

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It is the last day of August and we have a whopping total of four games on the schedule for today. The Yankees and Tigers wrap their series at 1:10 PM ET and the day is capped off by a possible NLCS preview between the Braves and Dodgers. With a thin slate like this, we may not find the most exciting NRFI bets but there is money to be made nonetheless.

Thursday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

New York Yankees at Detroit Tigers

We will begin with the only afternoon game and a pitching matchup of Clarke Schmidt versus Matt Manning. Schmidt’s full-season numbers don’t look great, but most of that came from some early-season struggles, and he has since turned things around. His second-half numbers don’t look as impressive due to an absolute drubbing at the hands of the Braves, but either way, he is showing some real promise for the Yankees. He has allowed a 0.297 wOBA the first time through the order, which is solid and highlights his ability to keep clean innings early in games. Manning does not get any strikeouts, so he appears to be pitching over his head a bit. He also appears to get stronger as the game goes on, but he still has a solid 0.321 wOBA allowed the first time through an order. The top of the Yankees’ order has been a quiet but bright spot lately, but in order for them to score, they’ll likely need to leave the yard. This could be a bit difficult in Detroit, so I’ll take the chance on this game.

Pick: -110

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals

Almost everything about Joan Adon looks pretty rough on paper. He doesn’t have excellent K numbers, he’s allowing too many homers, he carries an unsustainably low BABIP, and I could keep going. But he actually has some interesting splits as we dive in. He is probably best suited as a reliever, and in his small sample of a career, he has allowed a 0.301 BABIP the first time through an order. That is definitely solid and plenty good enough for an NRFI bet. The top of the Marlins’ offense is struggling; they were missing Jorge Soler yesterday and could potentially do so again today. Without him, the top looks a lot weaker. Braxton Garrett has been excellent this season, with a nice strikeout rate and extremely low walk numbers. His one “flaw” has been a few too many homers, but that should not be an issue against this Nationals’ lineup. Garrett’s 0.320 wOBA the first time through an order isn’t elite, but it is plenty good enough for us to feel comfortable taking this bet.

Pick: -110

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday:


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