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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (10/10)

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The ALDS continues on Tuesday evening with the Twins hosting the Astros in a 1-1 series and the Rangers playing host to the Orioles up 2-0 in a potential series-clinching game. I'm staying away from the latter game, which features the best combination of offenses out of the two games as well as the inferior pitching matchup between Dean Kremer, who has been victimized by hard hit balls this year, and Nathan Eovaldi, who hasn't been quite the same pitcher since his injury stint in the middle of the season. Instead, I'll focus on the Twins vs Astros game, which will see Sonny Gray and Cristian Javier take the mound for their respective teams. Both of these teams rank in the top 7 in terms of runs allowed in the first inning, and Target Field has ranked slightly below average in terms of overall offensive ballpark factors since 2021.

2023 NRFI (54-48, -4.13 Units)

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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks

Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros - First Inning Run – No (-105 @ BetMGM)

Cristian Javier didn't exactly have the dark-horse Cy Young type of season that some thought he might have after an incredible second half to his 2022 campaign, ending the year with a somewhat disappointing 4.56 ERA. I thought that Javier pitcher pretty well coming down the home stretch though, allowing 3ER or fewer in 11 out of his last 14 starts after a pretty rough stretch in June/July. Javier's hard hit%, whiff% and chase rate graded out above league average, with almost all of his other advanced metrics coming in around the 50th percentile. His xBA of 0.230 puts him in the top 1/3 of the league, so there's reason to believe that he's been a little bit unlucky and likely due for some positive regression. Javier has a history of showing up when the lights are the brightest, holding a career 2.20 ERA and 0.92 WHIP with a 3:1 K:BB ratio through 14 postseason appearances. He'll be up against a Twins offense that led the majors in strikeouts and hit for average at a bottom-10 rate during the regular season. Additionally, although the Twins had pretty balanced offensive splits during the regular season, they have hit much worse against righties (albeit in a limited sample size) this offseason.

Sonny Gray turned in a really nice 2023 season, posting a season-long ERA of 2.79 with a 1.15 WHIP. His 71st percentile xERA indicates that those numbers weren't a fluke, which is also backed up by his 68th percentile barrel%. Even if batters did barrel his balls up, his 48% ground ball rate was good for the 77th percentile, so he did a great job of keeping a majority of hard-hit balls on the ground. His walk rate of 7.3% puts him in the top 1/3 of the league, so he wasn't victimized by the free pass, either. Gray has pitched well in his postseason career as well, allowing just 7ER over 5 career postseason starts, including a 5IP gem against a pretty good Blue Jays offense in the Wild Card round. Gray will have the splits advantage against the Astros in this matchup as well, as Houston hit lefties much better than they did righties during the regular season.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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