MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (4/2)
Today's MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) article takes aim at a few offenses that really underperformed in 2023, with some of the worst power metrics in all of baseball. These matchups also coincide nicely with some top-of-the-rotation arms, as most teams can start their Opening Day pitchers again after four days of full rest. Three of the four pitchers featured in today's article are the respective aces on their team, and both ballparks where their games will be played are skewed heavily against the offense.
Let's get these two plays to the window after a good start to the season.
Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook | 2024 NRFI (1-0; +0.45 Units)
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Anderson vs. Jesus Luzardo
Jesus Luzardo was one of my favorite pitchers to back in any market last year, one of the hardest-throwing left-handed starting pitchers in the game that now finds himself at the very top of the Marlins rotation. His swing-and-miss stuff was elite in 2023, as he ranked above the 75th percentile in chase %, whiff % and K %. He also had solid command of the strike zone, ranking just below the 66th percentile in walk rate at 7.4%. He'll be up against an Angels lineup that is obviously depleted compared to years prior with the loss of Shohei Ohtani during the offseason. However, even with Ohtani in the lineup last year, they still ranked in the bottom half of baseball in BA and OBP. This season (albeit a very limited sample size), they rank 26th in BA (0.195) and OBP (0.264), respectively, with their SLG and OPS both ranking in the bottom half of the Bigsm despite Mike Trout's recent power surge. I see the Angels having one of the worst offenses in baseball in 2024, and as long as Luzardo doesn't serve one up to Trout in the first inning, he should escape this one unscathed.
Speaking of underwhelming offenses, the Marlins offense leaves much to be desired in their own right. Miami has yet to win a game this season. The Marlins rank 20th or worse in BA, OBP OPS and SLG. They have also popped only three HRs on the season. They struggled to find consistent power last year, ranking 19th in both OPS and SLG, with the 22nd most HRs in the MLB with 166. Jorge Soler, who is no longer on the team, did a significant portion of that damage.
They'll be matched up against LHP Tyler Anderson, a veteran pitcher who has spent eight seasons at the MLB level and is making his debut for the Halos. His stats won't necessarily blow you away, but he did a phenomenal job of avoiding hard contact last season, ranking in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and 90th percentile in hard-hit%.
LoanDepot Park is also not considered to be hitter-friendly by any means, ranking 24th in HR rate and 21st in overall offensive park factors since 2021.
Bet: NRFI (-110)
Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Shane Bieber vs. Luis Castillo
This game features a pair of experienced RHP aces on both sides, with Luis Castillo getting the ball for the Mariners. Castillo had a bit of a rocky start to the season with an Opening Day loss to the Red Sox but has consistently been one of the most dominating pitchers in baseball in recent seasons. In 2023, he ranked above the 70th percentile in walk rate, K%, whiff%, chase% and average fastball velo, with an ERA of 3.34 and a WHIP of 1.10, which are all really good. His xBA and xERA both also ranked comfortably among the top half of all starters, so as always, his numbers were no fluke.
Similar to the Marlins, the Guardians struggled to find pop with their bats last year, ranking bottom-10 in OBP, OPS and SLG with the fewest HR hit in the MLB by a wide margin. They didn't really do anything to address those concerns in the offseason, so I think we're in for another year of struggling offensive performances in Cleveland. Castillo should navigate this lineup with ease, and I like him to have a clean first inning.
The last pitcher to highlight in this article is Shane Bieber for the Guardians, who reflects Castillo in the same way that he has been a force at the top of the Cleveland rotation for quite some time now. He had a much better start to the season, though, going 6.0 innings strong without allowing a run to Oakland in their opener. His advanced numbers in 2023 were the worst of his career, yet he still managed to post a 3.80 ERA with a WHIP of 1.23, which most pitchers would sign up for in a heartbeat. His ERA hasn't been north of 4.00 since his debut season, and he's consistently had one of the best commands in the game, with walk rates that almost always stay below 5%.
Continuing the theme of underperforming offenses, the Mariners were surprisingly a bottom-half team in most offensive categories in 2023. While I do think that likely gets turned around in 2024, Bieber can still take advantage of some of their holes and have a clean first inning tonight.
T-Mobile Park has also been unkind to hitters in recent years, ranking dead-last in overall offensive ballpark factors since 2021.
Bet: NRFI (-135)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: