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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/16)

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On Tuesday’s full slate of games, I’m turning to two pitchers that I love to back in the NRFI market in Cristian Javier and Zack Wheeler and another rising star in the National League in Justin Steele. All of these pitchers have incredible stuff, which grade out their advanced metrics as some of the best in the MLB. Alex Cobb of the Giants is nothing to scoff at either, a veteran pitcher with prolonged success that is pitching to the tune of a 1.70 ERA this season. I expect a bounce back with these two plays after unsuccessfully fading the New York offenses last Friday.

Tuesday’s Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bets

2023 NRFI (15-9, +3.29 Units)

Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs – No Run 1st Inning (-120 @ Bet365)

Justin Steele has taken the mantle as the Cubs’ best starting pitcher, posting a sterling 6-0 record with a 1.82 ERA and a WHIP of 1.03 so far in 2023. He’s never been a pitcher that gets his all that hard, which is reflected in his advanced metrics. His average exit velocity, barrel % and hard hit % all rank in the 90th percentile, resulting in his xSLG and xWOBA also ranking in the top 30th percentile. He’ll be facing off against a pretty underwhelming Astros offense that ranks 20th or worse in OBP, SLG, OPS, 2B and HR hit. I like Steele to have continued success in the opening frame of this ballgame.

Cristian Javier of the Astros is a pitcher that I’ve backed in this market multiple times prior, with varying levels of success. He hasn’t been quite as dominant as he was last season, but he’s still been a very consistent and reliable starting pitcher, going at least 5 IP in all of his starts and not having surrendered more than 4 ER in any of them. His metrics suggest that his stuff is still elite, as he ranks above the 79th percentile in whiff %, K% and chase rate, and he’s walking less than 10% of the batters he faces. The Cubs have had a surprisingly good offense this year, but Javier catches them in their worse offensive splits as a right-handed pitcher, which should neutralize some of their early-season success. I’m once again backing Javier to have a clean first inning, and I love this matchup for him against the Cubs.

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies – No Run 1st Inning (-125 Caesars)

Zack Wheeler is another pitcher that I’ve consistently backed in the NRFI market, with a higher success rate than Javier. Wheeler has one of the best-looking Baseball Savant pages of any pitcher in the major leagues, and his numbers suggest that he’s actually been a little bit unlucky. Most of the time, a pitcher’s xERA will be higher than his actual ERA, but Wheeler’s turns out to be 0.40 points lower. That mark, along with his average exit velo, hard hit%, barrel %, xSLG, BB%, K% and whiff %, all rank in the top 30th percentile – good luck finding another pitcher that can match that success.

Alex Cobb of the Giants hasn’t been as dominant as Wheeler’s metrics suggest, but he has been extremely effective. He has great control of the strike zone, walking less than 5% of the batters he faces, and his 1.70 ERA is one of the lowest that you’ll find from a starting pitcher. His Statcast numbers suggest some positive regression coming in the hard hits department, as he ranks in the bottom 14th percentile in hard hit %, yet his barrel % and xWOBA both rank above the 60th percentile. He’ll also get the added benefit of pitching at home in Oracle Park, which has allowed the 6th lowest rate of home runs since 2021.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:

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