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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/23)

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This Tuesday's full slate of games features some really great pitching matchups to target for the NRFI market, but I've crossed a few off of my list because of offensive matchups or favorable hitting environments. In line with last Friday, I've narrowed in on two games with underperforming offenses in less hitter-friendly ballparks: the Washington Nationals vs. the San Diego Padres and the Minnesota Twins vs. the San Francisco Giants.

Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

2023 NRFI (17-10, +3.83 Units)

Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres NRFI (-115 @ Caesars & Bet365)

I've covered this in some of my prior analyses, but the Padres’ offense has surprisingly been pretty poor in 2023, ranking 20th or worse in the MLB in OPS, SLG, and OBP and coming in at dead last in BA. That kind of performance does not bode well in this matchup against MacKenzie Gore, one of the best young arms in baseball with underlying metrics that grade out extremely well. Gore has great stuff, ranking in the top 1/3 of the league in chase rate, whiff% and K%, which has resulted in him ranking in the 60th percentile or better in barrel%, xBA and xSLG. He also has reverse splits, pitching better against right-handed batters than left-handed batters, which will help him to neutralize a Padres lineup that hits slightly better against lefties.

Meanwhile, Yu Darvish has continued to be one of the most consistent arms at the top of the rotation in all of baseball, pitching to the tune of a 3.56 ERA that's actually higher than his xERA of 3.14. His Statcast metrics are phenomenal, ranking in the top 30th percentile in K%, whiff%, barrel%, xBA, xSLG and xWOBA. He'll be getting the Nationals, who already struggle to hit the ball hard and generate xBH, in their demonstratively worse hitting splits against RHP. I expect him to make quick work of the top of Washington's lineup in the opening frame. Additionally, Nationals Park ranks slightly below league average in nearly all offensive categories, conferring no stark advantages to either offense.

Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants - No Run 1st Inning (-115 @ Bet365)

The Twins are another example of a team that I've picked on in this market because their offensive performance simply has not lived up to their expectations. They're a bottom-10 team in BA and OBP, and they strike out at the highest rate in the MLB. They only have one batter with a BA north of 0.300, and their supposed star players in Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are hitting 0.231 and 0.213, respectively, in a year where we've seen offensive performances improve across the league. They'll be up against Alex Cobb today, who has a stellar 1.94 ERA and should be able to have success against those power bats in the Twins lineup, as his numbers are much better against right-handed hitters.

Minnesota has boasted some tremendous starting pitching depth, and today will be Sonny Gray's turn. Gray has been fantastic so far, tossing a ridiculous 1.64 ERA (3.16 xERA is the best in his career and good for the 78th percentile) with a 1.16 WHIP. He's been missing bats, generating whiffs and strikeouts at the top 25% rate in the MLB. The balls that do get hit have been turned into outs, as his xWOBA, xSLG and xBA all rank 78th percentile or better. The Giants are a middling offensive team, and Target Field has graded out below average in most offensive park factors, including HR, over the past 3 seasons, so I like Gray to have success in the first inning and hold up his end of the bargain in this NFRI play.

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Tuesday:

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