MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (5/30)
The NRFI market continues to be a challenge to tackle, as I've previously covered how offensive statistics and baserunning are way up in 2023 compared to previous years. Today, I'll be targeting four relatively underwhelming offenses (all rank bottom 10 in some combination of BA/OBP/OPS/SLG) against pitchers that have all been unlucky in terms of their expected numbers (all have a significantly lower xERA than actual ERA) in decisively pitcher-friendly ballparks (both parks grade out well below league average in offensive park factors). I believe the combination of these factors creates two really strong opportunities to target the NRFI market this Tuesday.
Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
2023 NRFI (17-14, -0.17 Units)
Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres – NRFI (-113 FanDuel)
While it's true that Sandy Alcantara has not lived up to the expectations after winning the Cy Young in 2022, I've had some success backing him in the NRFI market, and his underlying metrics suggest that he's due for some positive regression. His xERA is a full 0.60 runs lower than his actual ERA, and his fastball is still one of the hardest that you'll see from a starting pitcher, ranking in the 96th percentile.
I've pointed this out in a previous article, but the Padres have been one of the biggest disappointments offensively in 2023. They rank in the bottom 10 in baseball in OPS, SLG, OBP and BA, and they rank dead last in the MLB in BA with runners in scoring position. They'll also be facing Sandy in their demonstrably worse hitting splits, as they are a much better-hitting team against LHP.
Ryan Weathers, a former #7 overall pick, will be getting the ball for the Padres to start. He's been pretty solid this season, and he's another example of a pitcher whose analytics suggest that he's actually been better than his numbers indicate. His xERA sits in the top 1/3 of the league at 3.49 (nearly a full 0.50 runs better than his actual ERA), and he excels at pitching to soft contact. He ranks in the top 30th percentile in average exit velo and xSLG, and he ranks in the top 10th percentile in barrel% and hard hit%.
The Marlins are not an offense that boasts a ton of power, ranking in the bottom half of the league in OBP and OPS, and ranking bottom 10 in HR and 2B. LoanDepot Park has traditionally favored pitchers as well, ranking 23rd in overall park factor and HR rate since 2021.
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees – NRFI (-115 Bet365)
Logan Gilbert has quietly been one of the more underrated pitchers in the American League in 2023, pitching in the shadow of their ace Luis Castillo. His sub-3.00 xERA of 2.87 is terrific, grading out in the 86th percentile, and his WHIP of 0.92 is phenomenal. Statcast ranks Gilbert as the #1 pitcher in all of baseball in terms of extension off the mound, which has resulted in xSLG, xBA, chase rate, and K% all comfortably ranking in the top one-third of the league.
He's always had great control of the strike zone, but this year he's walking a career-low 4.3% of the batters he faces. He'll, of course, have to deal with the problem that is Aaron Judge, but the Yankees as a team have been relatively inconsistent offensively, ranking in the bottom 10 in terms of BA and OBP, and are currently dealing with injuries to two power bats in Anthony Rizzo and Harrison Bader.
Nestor Cortes of the Yankees has been a confusing pitcher in 2023. His xERA is nearly two full runs lower than his actual ERA, which is nearly unheard of. He has been really good the first two times through the batting order, but then his numbers skyrocket the third time he's faced batters this season, which I believe is inflating some of his numbers and is a large reason why his expected numbers are much better than his actual ones. He's still ranking above league average in xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel%, BB% and K%, and he'll get the Mariners with their inferior offensive splits against LHP.
I trust Nestor's track record in previous years and the fact that he's still been pretty dominant in the early going against opponents this season. T-Mobile Park has graded out dead last in terms of offensive ballpark factors since 2021, ranking #1 in strikeouts for batters and bottom 10 in HR hit, so we'll get the added benefit of a pitcher-friendly atmosphere in this one as well.
Make sure to check out the rest of our best bets for Tuesday:
- MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- MLB PrizePicks Player Predictions
- MLB Best Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
- WNBA Best Bets, Picks & Predictions
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