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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/19)

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I think we could be in for a pretty high-scoring day across the MLB on this Tuesday, as a lot was left to be desired in terms of marquee pitching matchups this evening. I've settled on 2 games featuring a quartet of RHP, all of which will be pitching to their opponent's statistically worse offensive splits, save for the Diamondbacks who hit both sides equally (though they have been struggling mightily down the stretch). All pitchers excel in at least one key area that I target for these plays, including avoiding hard contact, avoiding walks, ground ball%, and generating whiffs from the opposition. I think we have a great chance to get both of these plays to the window as we enter the twilight of the 2023 regular season.

Monday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Oakland A's vs. Seattle Mariners - NRFI (-130 Caesars)

Luis Castillo has been everything that the Mariners hoped to acquire when they traded for their would-be ace, currently rocking a 3.08 ERA with a 1.04 WHIP on the season. His expected metrics back up his success, as his xERA of 3.67 and xBA of 0.225 both put him above the 70th percentile. He's one of the best in the game at getting batters to swing and miss, ranking in the 70th percentile in chase rate, 76th percentile in K%, and 84th percentile in whiff%. He's only walking batters at a 6.4% rate, and he'll get the benefit of pitching against the likely worst offense in the MLB, as the A's rank bottom-10 in HR and bottom-5 in 2B, AVG, OBP, OPS, and SLG. Their numbers are also worse against RHP, which does not bode well for them against one of the most dominant RHP in the game in Castillo.

On the other side, Paul Blackburn will get the start for the A's at the tail end of what has probably been the best season-long performance of any A's 2023 starting pitcher. Though Blackburn's 4.14 ERA doesn't necessarily jump off the page, he excels at one area of his game in particular, which is absolutely critical to these NRFI plays - avoiding hard contact. Opponents are barreling up Blackburn's pitches at just a 5.6% rate, which puts him in the 81st percentile. This has led to an average exit velo in the 85th percentile and a hard hit% that qualifies for the 88th percentile. Like Castillo, he's also able to get batters to chase, ranking in the top 1/3 of all pitchers in that category. The Mariners have been a middling team offensively this year, and they will also be in their inferior hitting splits against the RHP Blackburn, so I like his matchup in this one. Additionally, Oakland Coliseum has never been regarded as a hitter-friendly ballpark, ranking bottom-5 in overall offensive ballpark factors and HR rate since 2021 via Statcast.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants - NRFI (-115 Bet365)

*Note - I'm seeing Alex Cobb as the projected starter for the Giants in some outlets, but in others, it is listed as TBA. I will only be playing if Cobb makes this start.*

Alex Cobb has been a model of consistency at the top end of the Giants rotation in previous seasons, and this year has been no different. His 3.62 ERA and 1.30 WHIP are both very respectable, and he's been great in some of the same categories that were touched upon in the first game. His 7.1% barrel rate ranks in the 65th percentile, and his 30.4% chase rate is just shy of the 70th percentile. What I really love about Cobb is that his ground ball rate of 57.6% ranks in the 95th percentile, so even if batters do manage to barrel the ball up and hit it hard, more often than not, he's able to keep the ball out of the air. He's also been able to avoid the free pass, walking batters at less than a 6% rate. He'll be pitching to a Diamondbacks offense that has really slowed down since the All-Star break after their torrent start, seeing noticeable declines in their AVG, OPS, OBP, and SLG since that point.

This matchup also gives me the chance to back NL Cy Young candidate Zac Gallen, who has been one of my favorite pitchers to back in any capacity this year. Gallen's 3.50 ERA and 1.11 WHIP are both great, and most of his success can probably be attributed to the fact that both his fastball and offspeed pitches rank above the 90th percentile in terms of movement/run in the landscape of all pitchers. His swing-and-miss ability puts him in the top 1/3 of pitchers in chase rate and K%, and his walk rate of 5.3% ranks in the 90th percentile. The Giants have maintained relevance in the playoff picture despite quietly ranking 20th or worse in AVG, OBP, OPS, and SLG. They'll also be in their noticeably worse hitting splits against the righty Gallen in this one.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:


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