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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Tuesday (9/26)

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As the 2023 MLB season winds to a close, it's a little bit more difficult to pinpoint these NRFI spots, mainly because teams are calling up pitchers to gain some experience or resting season-long starters to give them some relief before the playoffs get underway. That has led to a high degree of uncertainty regarding who will actually start these games in the final week of the season, as I'm currently seeing "TBA" listed for the starting pitcher in a third of the games on this Tuesday evening, which obviously limits our NRFI options.

With that said, I've still been able to narrow in on two plays that I feel confident about that feature key components that I look for when identifying NRFI spots. This includes the ability to avoid hard contact and the ability to generate the swing and miss and negative hitting splits for the opposing lineup.

Here’s my best NRFI bet for Tuesday, Sept. 26.

Tuesday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

2023 NRFI: 51-48 (-5.60 Units)

Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles

Pitching Matchup: Josiah Gray vs. Kyle Bradish

Kyle Bradish has quietly had an excellent season in his second year in the Majors for an Orioles squad that has been searching for consistent starting pitching to pair with their electric offense. Bradish's 3.01 ERA and 1.07 ERA are both fantastic, and his xERA of 3.88 sits well above league average and is supported by other metrics. His barrel% of 7.0% puts him in the top third of the league in that category, and his 48% ground ball rate positions him in the top quartile. So even when batters are barreling his balls up, he's generating consistent ground ball outs. He's striking out one of every four batters he faces. This puts him in the 63rd percentile, and his walk rate of 6.4% ranks in the 80th percentile and signals that he's not giving up the free pass at a high rate.

The Nationals have a lineup that doesn't exactly blow you away offensively, ranking in the bottom 10 in terms of OBP, OPS and SLG, while also ranking second-to-last in HR. They will also be in their inferior hitting splits against the RHP Bradish, which is another feather in his cap for this matchup.

On the other side, Josiah Gray will get the start for the Nationals at the tail end of an All-Star season in his third year in the Bigs. Gray has fallen off a bit since the break, but one thing that he has done consistently through the entire year is avoid hard contact. Gray ranks in the top third of all pitchers regarding hard hit%. This has helped his average exit velocity to fall just shy of the 80th percentile at 87.6 MPH, which I think is actually more impressive, considering the Nationals have to deal with sluggers from the Braves and Phillies far more often than teams outside the division.

When digging into the Orioles’ numbers, I was actually surprised to find that Baltimore does not hit righties as well as they do lefties, which is an advantage for the RHP Gray here. Gray also pitches MUCH better on the road, with his ERA coming in a full 2.43 points lower in road starts. His numbers against batters the first time through the order are also pretty solid.

Bet: NRFI (-115 via Caesars Sportsbook)

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

Pitching Matchup: Michael King vs. Kevin Gausman

If it weren't for what Gerrit Cole has done in the Bronx this year, Kevin Gausman would potentially be on his way to receiving the AL Cy Young Award. Gausman has been one of the best swing-and-miss pitchers in baseball this year, ranking in the 71st percentile in whiff% and the 86th percentile in chase rate. He also holds an insanely high 31.4% strikeout rate, which puts him in the top 10% of all pitchers in that category. His walk rate of 7.2% is just shy of the 70th percentile, and both his xERA and xBA sit well above league average. Gausman dominates right-handed hitters, and the Yankees, who have a primarily right-handed batting order, have really struggled against RHP this season. They have also just been flat-out disappointing overall, ranking in the bottom 10 in nearly all impactful offensive categories.

Michael King will start for the Yankees, a career mid-reliever/closer/long man that the Yankees have given an opportunity to start and go deep into games as the season winds down, and boy has he made the most of that opportunity. Just last week, King started against this same Blue Jays team and went 7.0 IP, surrendering just one ER and striking out an insane 13 batters while walking 0. His season-long numbers (though most of them reflective of relief appearances) tell us that this wasn't necessarily a fluke, as his 2.66 ERA (88th percentile 3.24 xERA) and 1.12 WHIP are outstanding. He avoids hard contact with the best of them, ranking above the 90th percentile in both hard hit% and average exit velocity. As indicated by his last start, he can certainly get batters to swing and miss as well, ranking in the 78th percentile in whiff% and 92nd percentile in K%.

I like King's matchup against this righty-heavy Blue Jays lineup that hits righties at a much lower clip than they do lefties. He should have all the confidence in the world after dominating their lineup less than a week ago.

Bet: NRFI (-135 via Bet365)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:

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