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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (5/17)

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Here are our top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks and predictions for today’s games.

View the best player prop bets for tonight's slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>

Today’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins

Mackenzie Gore vs. Edward Cabrera

This NRFI play is about fading a struggling offense rather than backing two starting pitchers. Both Miami and Washington rank in the bottom ten in wOBA and wRC+ offensively. They struggle to score runs on an everyday basis. Miami ranks dead last in runs per game (3.48), while the Nationals rank 24th (4.05)

This pitching matchup doesn’t seem great on paper, but Mackenzie Gore and Edward Carera have an xFIP below 3.60, meaning they are pitching better than what their standard ERA tells us. This may be a sneaky NRFI bet with great value.

Bet: NRFI -140

Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Sonny Gray vs. Dustin May

The Minnesota Twins have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. As a team, they have the second-lowest ERA (3.32) and the 3rd lowest xFIP (3.88), and that all starts with Sonny Gray. Gray, acquired this offseason, is 4-0 with a 1.39 ERA. 

The Dodger’s current roster is only hitting .196 when facing Gray, a great sign when betting on the NRFI.

Dustin May has been just as impressive. He is 4-1 with a 2.68 ERA and has not allowed more than two earned runs in his last four starts.

Bet: NRFI -120

Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies

Graham Ashcraft vs. Austin Gomber

Unsurprisingly, the Reds and Rockies game currently has the highest total on the slate (11.5). Games played at Coors Field typically have a higher total, and today’s pitching matchup, it’s no exception. 

On paper, Ashcraft may look like an above pitcher, he is currently 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA, but the advanced metrics tell a different story. Graham Ashcraft has a SIERA of 4.96 and xFIP of 4.95, among the highest on today’s slate. 

To put it bluntly, Austin Gomber has been bad. The Rockies starter is 3-4 with a 6.30 ERA. Like Ashcraft, Gomber’s advanced metrics are incredibly high, posting a 5.21 SIERA and an xFIP of 4.97.

Bet: YRFI -165

Also, take a look at our other best bets for Wednesday:


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