Top MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds, Picks & Predictions: Wednesday (10/5)
Welcome to the final day of the Regular Season. Unfortunately, none of these games matter for the purposes of seeding but that does not mean there are no bets to be placed. Here are the top NRFI bets for today’s games.
View the best player prop bets for tonight's slate with our MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
New York Yankees at Texas Rangers 4:05 ET
Glenn Otto was a favorite of mine this season but the year has not quite gone as planned. The K-rate is lower than anticipated and the walk totals have been extremely high. However, this is mostly a bet on the Yankees’ lineup. With Aaron Judge hitting home run number 62 yesterday I would not be surprised to see the slugger get a day off. Additionally, other top Yankees bats may get a day of rest weakening the upper third of this potent lineup. Otoo has been best the first time through the order and may end up being better suited for a long-term role in the bullpen but for today he is a favorite of mine.
Domingo German has been a huge part of the Yankee’s success in 2022. He missed most of the early part of the season, but since rejoining the rotation he has been one of the best pitchers in the rotation. He does not strike out many hitters but he excels by limiting walks and allowing fewer homers than any other season of his career. Similarly to the Yankees, we could see some of the top Rangers bats get the day off today and as a result, this lines up extremely well for German to succeed.
Philadelphia Phillies at Houston Astros 4:10 ET
Looking over the matchups, it is difficult to find one we feel truly amazing about. This one falls into that bucket but has much better odds for us than I would have expected. Framber Valdez has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. He does not allow many homers which makes him a good match for this powerful Phillies lineup. With the Phillies no longer fighting for their lives we may see days off for some of their best hitters like Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. Valdez against a potential ‘B’ lineup from the Phillies is a great spot to attack.
The other side of this matchup has Bailey Falter taking the mound. Falter has an interesting combination of skills as he has a low walk rate with an elevated home run rate. Going forward he may be better served allowing some more walks to avoid the long ball. However, for us, low walk totals mean that teams need to string hits together or homer to score in the first. While there are a few players in this lineup that will likely play regardless of the fact that there is nothing to play for, we may not see Yordan Alvarez or some other sluggers. We just need Falter to have a clean first for this bet and as I stated before this is a better number than I would have expected.
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