MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (4/20)
We have a huge 16-game MLB slate for Saturday with plenty of afternoon and evening games on tap. As you place your baseball bets today, check out these no runs first inning (NRFI) picks and predictions. For today's MLB bets, we have one NRFI play and one yes runs first inning (YRFI) pick to target. Below are my favorite NRFI plays for Saturday, April 20th.
Saturday's Best MLB No Runs First Innings Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Starting Pitchers: Zach Eflin vs. Nestor Cortes Jr.
Saturday afternoon brings along an American League East showdown featuring the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees. While the game could feature a decent amount of runs overall in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, the starting pitchers could have the advantage early on.
Zach Eflin has had an up-and-down season thus far but he just threw 6.1 shutout innings against the Angels last time out. The Tampa righty also allowed just one run over 6.1 innings in a matchup versus Texas earlier this month. Eflin is 3-1 to the NRFI so far and owns an impressive 1.86 ERA in five career starts against the Yankees. Last year, he had a ton of success to begin games with a 2.03 ERA and a .164 batting average against in the first inning with a 25-6 NRFI record across 31 starts (80%).
While the Yankees have upper-tier numbers against righties this season, Eflin's track record in the first inning going back to last year is what we're targeting here. Juan Soto is the big hurdle near the top of the New York lineup, but Eflin can limit the supporting cast. Anthony Volpe (.286 career batting average vs. Eflin), Aaron Judge (.111), Giancarlo Stanton (.100) and Anthony Rizzo (.200) all have below-average BvP numbers in this matchup. Plus, the Yankees are 14-5 to the NRFI this year (a league-high mark), including 6-1 at home.
On the other side, Nestor Cortes Jr. isn't always trustworthy, but he can hold the Rays in check in the first inning. The New York left-hander had a 10-2 NRFI record in 2023. Cortes is 2-2 to the NRFI this season, but he's tossed back-to-back scoreless first innings in his past two outings.
Although the Rays will deploy a righty-heavy lineup against Cortes, he has favorable head-to-head numbers against the likely No. 2 and No. 3 hitters in Randy Arozarena (.200 career batting average vs. Cortes) and Harold Ramirez (.231). Cortes may give up a few runs overall but he can blank the Rays in the first inning.
Bet: No Runs First Inning (-113)
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes vs. Cole Ragans
Saturday's pitching matchup of Corbin Burnes versus Cole Ragans is an attractive one on paper. It should ultimately lead to a lower-scoring outcome for the Baltimore Orioles and Kansas City Royals. However, this is a sneaky spot to target a YRFI (Yes Runs First Inning).
Orioles starter Corbin Burnes owns an impressive 2.28 ERA and 0.93 WHIP this season as a top American League Cy Young contender. Despite those good numbers overall, Burnes has had issues starting games clean. In fact, the righty has allowed a run in the first inning of all four starts this season. This is a trend that dates back to last season when Burnes compiled a 4.22 first-inning ERA, allowing 16 runs across 32 opening frames.
As for the Royals, their top half of the lineup is proving to be feisty. Bobby Witt Jr. is in MVP form (.321 BA, .997 OPS) while Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez provide some power with the RBI production behind Witt. That trio can make Burnes work and it helps that Kansas City already faced him earlier this month, pushing across a run in the first inning.
Then there's Cole Ragans, who is off to a hot start for the Royals. The left-hander has a 1.93 ERA and 2.30 FIP through four outings. Ragans is 2-2 to the NRFI this year after posting an 11-1 NRFI record last season. Betting against Ragans is risky right now, but this matchup against Baltimore is tough.
Against lefties over the past week, the Orioles lead the MLB in wOBA (.471), wRC+ (218), ISO, (.367) and OPS (1.099). It's a small sample size, but the O's had a top-10 offense against southpaws last year. They can roll out a strong lineup with Adley Rutschman, Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander hitting behind Gunnar Henderson. The Baltimore hitters also benefit from facing Ragans a couple of weeks ago.
Bet: Yes Runs First Inning (+108)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: