MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (4/27)
We have a huge 15-game MLB slate for Saturday with games lasting all afternoon and into the evening. As you place your baseball bets today, check out these NRFI picks and predictions. For today's MLB bets, we have two NRFI (No Runs First Inning) picks to target as root for clean games to start. Below are my favorite NRFI plays for Saturday, April 27th.
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Saturday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker vs. Edward Cabrera
The Washington Nationals and Miami Marlins have been two of the most profitable NRFI teams this season, so let's lean right into the trends. The Nats are a league-best 17-8 to the NRFI (68%) this season while the Marlins are 18-9 (67%) overall and 7-3 over the past 10 games.
These trends should continue today based on the starting pitcher matchup. Nationals rookie Mitchell Parker has burst onto the national radar with a 1.50 ERA, 1.14 FIP, 0.58 WHIP, a .163 batting average against, and a 12:0 K:BB ratio over his first two starts. It's admittedly a very small sample size but the left-handed Parker can keep the hot start going in a favorable spot here.
The Marlins’ offense is the MLB's worst against left-handed pitching this season with a .236 wOBA, 46 wRC+, .079 ISO, and .193 BA in the split. Parker is 1-1 to the NRFI so far but again, it's a small sample. The one run he did allow in the first inning was against the Dodgers, which is completely understandable when you have to get past Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith. It's encouraging to see him toss seven shutout innings against the Astros last time out, though.
We should also see Marlins starter Edward Cabrera hold the Washington offense in check early on. Cabrera was excellent in the first inning of games last season with a 17-3 NRFI record and a 2.25 ERA in the opening frame. He's 2-0 to the NRFI this year so far and can make it three straight against one of the worst first-inning offenses in the league (.284 wOBA and 78 wRC+).
Bet: NRFI (-111)
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers: Martin Perez vs. Jordan Hicks
We're now a month into Jordan Hicks' transition to the starting rotation with the San Francisco Giants. It's obviously early, but it's been a success so far. Hicks has a 1.61 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and a .168 batting average against through five starts. He'll likely see negative regression in some starts down the line considering his 3.71 FIP, low BABIP, and high left-on-base rate. Still, the Giants' righthander can be effective in the first inning with stuff that's tough to plan for.
Hicks features a 95-97 mph heater with two elite-level off-speed pitches. His splitter has a .160 wOBA and .063 batting average against with a 46.2% whiff rate. Meanwhile, the sweeper has been just as good with a .179 wOBA/.053 BA against and a 32.4% whiff rate. Hicks' arsenal is confounding opposing hitters until they get a read on him, as evidenced by his .184 batting average and .289 OBP allowed the first time through the order.
In turn, Hicks has a 4-1 NRFI record thus far with just a .250 OBP allowed in the first inning. He should keep this early success going in a favorable matchup here. The Pittsburgh Pirates have one of the league's worst offenses against righties with a .297 wOBA, .233 BA, and 85 wRC+. Over the past week, those numbers in the split are even worse (.257 wOBA, .193 BA, 58 wRC+). The Pirates have a 15-11 NRFI record overall this year, but it's at 11-3 on the road.
On the other side of this game, Martin Perez brings in a strong NRFI track record for the Pirates. The veteran left-hander has a 4-1 NRFI record so far this season and had a combined 40-12 NRFI record over the previous two seasons with Texas (13-7 last year, 27-5 in 2022). That's a combined 77% NRFI trend for Perez.
The Giants’ offense has struggled vs lefties over the past 10 days with a .272 wOBA, 74 wRC+, and .611 OPS in the split over this span. By contrast, the San Fran lineup has been much better against right-handed pitching. so we get Perez's stellar NRFI tendencies against an offense that's on the wrong end of its splits. Plus, the Giants are 9-1 to the NRFI over the past 10 games.
Bet: NRFI (-138)