MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (5/25)
With MLB’s full slate of games, we have two No Runs First Inning bets for today’s MLB bets: the Giants vs. Mets and the Mariners vs. Nationals. Below are my favorite NRFI plays for Saturday, May 25th.
Saturday’s Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
Starting Pitchers: Jordan Hicks vs. Luis Severino
Saturday afternoon brings along a National League matchup between the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets. The starting pitchers, Jordan Hicks and Luis Severino, aren’t exactly aces, but they both bring in strong NRFI records this year.
Hicks is having an excellent first season as a full-time starting pitcher. The Giants’ right-hander has successfully made the transition from the bullpen to the rotation so far with a 2.38 ERA through 10 starts. Some of Hicks’ underlying metrics indicate potential negative regression moving forward. Yet, his stuff is proving to be very effective early in starts as he pumps out scoreless first innings more often than not.
Hicks has a 7-3 NRFI record while allowing just a .206 batting average and .250 OBP in the first inning. He’s also holding opposing hitters to a .183 BA and .244 OBP the first time through the order. The Mets’ top three of the batting order (Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Brandon Nimmo) are a combined 3-for-12 with three singles and five strikeouts against Hicks in their careers. It’s a small sample size, but it gives us more confidence that he can get through the first unscathed. It’s also worth noting that Hicks is a perfect 4-0 to the NRFI on the road this season.
We should see Luis Severino shut down the Giants in the opening frame as well. The New York starter has held opponents scoreless in the first inning in 8 of 9 starts so far this year. Severino is having a resurgent season for the Mets, and it’s evident early in his outings. The veteran right-hander, who had just an 11-7 NRFI record last season in a down year, looks more like the pitcher who went 17-4 to the NRFI back in 2022.
Although the San Francisco offense has been hot over the past couple of weeks, Severino’s NRFI track record is too good to ignore. He also boasts a 2.17 ERA in five home starts this year. It’s also worth noting that the Mets have the league’s second-highest home NRFI rate this season (18-6) while the Giants have a 15-11 road NRFI record.
Bet: NRFI (-115)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert vs. Trevor Williams
The Washington Nationals host the Seattle Mariners on Saturday afternoon in the second matchup of a three-game series. Both starting pitchers are in favorable spots and have strong first-inning track records this season. Let’s take a closer look at why the NRFI is the play here.
Logan Gilbert is off to a good start for Seattle with a 3.20 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this year. His 3.45 xERA and 3.55 FIP suggest not much negative regression is expected either. Gilbert has held opponents scoreless in 8 of 10 first innings as well. His first-inning success has carried from last year when he went 13-3 to the NRFI over his final 16 starts.
Meanwhile, the Nationals have the worst first-inning offense in the league this season in almost every advanced metric. Washington is dead last in wOBA (.231), wRC+ (47), ISO (.058), and OPS (.501) in the opening frame. The offense has also scored the MLB’s least amount of first-inning runs (10 in 48 games). In turn, the Nats are 33-16 to the NRFI this year and 7-3 over the past 10 contests.
While the Washington lineup goes down quietly in the first, Nats starter Trevor Williams can limit Seattle’s bats as well. Williams is having a breakout season with a 2.35 ERA, 2.81 FIP, and 1.09 WHIP. The right-hander could see some negative regression down the line, but he’s still proving to be effective early in starts with a 7-2 NRFI record thus far.
Believe it or not, Williams was 11-1 to the NRFI in his first 12 starts of last season. Teams then began figuring him out, and his NRFI hit rate plummeted in the second half of the year. Still, it’s saying something that Williams had similar early-game success for the whole first half of a season in which he compiled a 5.55 ERA. It appears he’s doing it again in 2024, though his run prevention seems like it could continue with solid underlying metrics.
As for the Mariners, they are also a terrible first inning offense with a .245 wOBA (28th), 60 wRC+ (28th), .116 ISO (25th), .182 BA (28th), and 34.7% strikeout rate (30th) in opening frames this year. Seattle has scored just 14 first-inning runs across 51 games so far and is 33-19 to the NRFI overall.
Bet: NRFI (-117)