MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (7/6)
Saturday brings along another full MLB slate of games as we dive into top No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks today. As you place your baseball bets today, check out these MLB picks and predictions. For Saturday, we have one NRFI pick and one Yes Runs First Inning (YRFI) pick. The two games we’ll focus on are the Astros vs. Twins and the Diamondbacks vs. Padres. Without further ado, below are my favorite NRFI plays for Saturday, July 6th. Note that the odds may change before the first pitch.
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Saturday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Starting Pitchers: Hunter Brown vs. Joe Ryan
One of Saturday afternoon’s bigger games features the Minnesota Twins hosting the Houston Astros as we target an early NRFI pick today. The pitching matchup of Hunter Brown vs. Joe Ryan points to both starters getting through the first inning unscathed.
Hunter Brown has settled down lately after a rough start to the season. The Astros’ right-hander had an ugly 9.78 ERA at the end of April but he’s been much better since. Brown is rocking a 1.99 ERA since the beginning of May (11 outings) and a 0.97 ERA since the start of June (six outings). He also has just one run allowed over his past five starts combined.
Brown had some rough first-inning numbers earlier this season, but he’s also improved a ton in that area. He has an 8-2 NRFI record over his past 10 starts, including five straight scoreless first innings coming into this weekend. The Twins, meanwhile, have scored only three runs in the first inning over the past two weeks and are 7-3 to the NRFI over the past 10 games.
On the other side, Joe Ryan has been pumping out strong starts for the Twins more often than not over the past two months. Ryan has a 2.84 ERA over his last five starts and a 3.13 ERA since the beginning of May. The Minnesota righty has an 11-6 NRFI record this year but is 6-2 over his past eight starts. Ryan has a strong NRFI record over previous seasons with a 23-6 mark last year and a 20-7 mark in 2022.
The Astros are a dangerous offense right now and have woken up after slumping earlier this season. Still, we’re backing Ryan to continue his first-inning success to help cash the NRFI.
Bet: NRFI (-115)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Brandon Pfaadt vs. Matt Waldron
Let’s now flip mindsets and back the YRFI in Saturday night’s Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres matchup. The starting pitchers in this National League West showdown are Brandon Pfaadt and Matt Waldron — both are very vulnerable to allowing an early run this weekend.
Brandon Pfaadt is having an up-and-down season for Arizona but has been shakier lately. The right-hander has a 4.60 ERA and 4.95 FIP over his past seven starts with 4+ runs allowed in four. Pfaadt also has an ugly 5.03 ERA on the road this year.
Pfaadt has a solid 13-4 NRFI record this year, but some negative regression could be coming to that first-inning success. The Padres have a dangerous offense right now with a .348 wOBA, 131 wRC+ and .806 OPS vs. right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. Pfaadt has faced the Padres twice this season and allowed a first-inning run and five runs total in both outings. San Diego could easily do it again this weekend.
On the other side, Padres starter Matt Waldron may have trouble with the Arizona offense. Waldron has allowed a first-inning run in eight of his 17 starts this season. In turn, he has an ugly 6.88 ERA with a .290 batting average and 1.016 OPS allowed in the first inning. The Diamondbacks have seen him twice already this season, which matters more for a knuckleballer like Waldron. They tagged him for four runs in the first inning and eight runs overall back in May in one of those outings.
Take the YRFI for this divisional matchup and bank on either (or both) Waldron or Pfaadt allowing a run early.
Bet: YRFI (-113)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: