MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (9/21)
Saturday brings along another full MLB slate of games as we dive into top NRFI picks today. As you place your baseball bets today, check out these MLB picks and predictions. For Saturday, we have one No Runs First Inning (NRFI) pick and one Yes Runs First Inning (YRFI) pick featuring the Pirates vs. Reds and the Diamondbacks vs. Brewers matchups. Without further ado, below are my favorite NRFI plays for Saturday, September 21. Note that odds may change before first pitch.
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Saturday's Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Starting Pitchers: Jared Jones vs. Rhett Lowder
Today's NL Central battle between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Cincinnati Reds features a matchup of two of the top rookie pitchers in the sport. Jared Jones and Rhett Lowder will be fun to watch for years to come and they go head-to-head on Saturday afternoon. The pair of exciting young arms puts the NRFI firmly in play.
Jones has had an up-and-down season for Pittsburgh with a 3.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP thus far. Despite his mixed overall results, the right-hander tends to begin his starts strong. Jones has thrown a scoreless first inning in 15-of-20 starts this year. Plus, he's allowed just a .197 batting average in his opening frames.
The Pirates' starter will face a Reds offense that has struggled in the first inning this season. Cincy has a .285 wOBA (28th in MLB), 75 wRC+ (28th), and .200 BA (30th) in the first inning. Meanwhile, Jones has a perfect 8-0 NRFI mark on the road so far.
On the other side, we get Lowder at home for Cincinnati. The righty boasts a 1.74 ERA through his first four starts. He's also yet to allow a run in the first inning through his four MLB starts for the Reds. Lowder also boasts a .214 BA against in his opening frames thus far. He'll take a Pirates lineup with poor first-inning numbers this season (.275 wOBA, 72 wRC+, .214 BA).
Take the NRFI for this divisional showdown. The Pirates have a 65% NRFI rate on the road this year while the Reds have a 69% NRFI mark at home.
Bet: NRFI (-113)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly vs. Aaron Civale
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers are both battling for playoff seeding and positioning as the season winds down. This weekend's series is also a potential preview of a postseason matchup in the National League. As for Saturday's game, we could see runs early and often with two dangerous offenses and some questionable starting pitchers.
Merrill Kelly has been inconsistent since returning to Arizona's rotation in August. The right-hander has a 5.17 ERA and 5.44 FIP in his past seven starts over this stretch. Though he's been a tad better recently, Kelly has also benefited from easier matchups in his past three outings (Rockies, Rangers, Giants). Today, he'll face a Milwaukee offense that's hitting righties well over the past week (.339 wOBA, 119 wRC+, .805 OPS).
Plus, Kelly has just a 4-3 NRFI record over the past two months. Overall this season, he has a 5.73 ERA in the first inning with a .296 batting average and .977 OPS allowed.
The Brewers have a good chance of scoring a run early against Kelly. If they don't though, Aaron Civale could have issues with a potent Diamondbacks lineup. Civale has a decent 21-8 NRFI record this year but he's been much less trustworthy in the first inning recently. The righty has a 7-5 NRFI mark since joining Milwaukee at the trade deadline. He's also allowed a first-inning run in three of his last five starts and half of his last eight outings.
Meanwhile, Arizona boasts the best first-inning offense in the league with a .397 wOBA, 156 wRC+, and .323 BA this year. The Diamondbacks are also hitting right-handers well this month (.346 wOBA, 120 wRC+, .799 OPS). Grab the YRFI as we root for scoring of any kind early on.
Bet: YRFI (-120)