MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (9/28)
Saturday brings along another full MLB slate of games as we dive into top NRFI picks today. As you place your baseball bets today, check out these MLB picks and predictions. For Saturday, we have two NRFI picks featuring the Rays vs. Red Sox and the Rangers vs. Angels matchups.
Without further ado, below are my favorite NRFI plays for Saturday, September 28. Note that odds may change before first pitch.
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Saturday's Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Shane Baz vs. Kutter Crawford
The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays will both be sitting out the playoffs and wrap up their seasons with this weekend's series. Saturday's pitching matchup and a pair of underwhelming offenses put the NRFI firmly in view for this AL East contest.
Shane Baz has a 3.07 ERA for Tampa this season and he's been sharp lately. The right-hander boasts a 1.95 ERA and .131 batting average allowed over his past 6 starts and a 2.71 ERA since the All-Star break. Baz has a decent 9-4 NRFI record this year, including 5-2 on the road. He also has a 2.84 ERA on the road.
Baz gets a favorable matchup here. The Red Sox have struggled against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks with a .274 wOBA, .212 BA, and 25.9% K rate. Boston's offense also has weak first-inning numbers in September (.259 wOBA, .210 BA, 32.6% K rate).
The other side of the game gives us Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford with some strong NRFI trends. The righty's 22-10 NRFI record this year is solid, but he's been more consistent in that area recently. Crawford has thrown a scoreless first inning in 7 of his past 8 starts and 11 of his past 16 outings. The Rays, meanwhile, have really struggled in the first inning this month (.245 wOBA, .202 BA, 26.1% K rate).
Take the NRFI in this divisional matchup. Both the Rays and Red Sox are 9-1 to the NRFI over their past 10 games.
Bet: NRFI (-136)
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers: Andrew Heaney vs. Griffin Canning
For our second NRFI pick today, let's target the AL West matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers. At first glance, betting on the NRFI with Griffin Canning and Andrew Heaney on the mound seems like a losing proposition. However, some interesting trends and stats point in that direction.
Andrew Heaney has a 23-7 NRFI record this season with just a .198 batting average allowed in the first inning. He's tossed a scoreless first inning in 15 of his last 17 starts, including seven straight coming into this outing. Heaney has also been more consistent overall lately with a 3.13 ERA over his past six starts. He'll face an Angels offense that's been terrible against left-handed pitching this month (.225 wOBA, 41 wRC+, .167 BA, 27.1% K rate).
On the surface, Griffin Canning is a terrible pitcher to back in the first inning. His 5.24 ERA this year is one thing, but his weak 17-13 NRFI mark is another. Plus, he has an ugly 7.80 ERA and .336 BA allowed in the first inning this season. However, the Angels' right-hander has been much better in that department lately. Canning has tossed a scoreless first inning in 10 of his past 12 starts, including 5 straight.
Meanwhile, the Rangers have below-average numbers against right-handed pitching recently. They have a .288 wOBA and 87 wRC+ in the split over the past two weeks. Canning held Texas scoreless in the first inning in his lone start against the divisional opponent back in July.
Both pitchers make the NRFI a more riskier bet than usual today. However, the trends and recent track records are there.
Bet: NRFI (-120)