MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (9/7)
Saturday brings another full MLB slate of games as we dive into today’s top NRFI (No Runs First Inning) picks. As you place your baseball bets today make sure to check out these MLB picks and predictions. For Saturday, we have one NRFI pick and one Yes Runs First Inning (YRFI) pick. Without further ado, below are my favorite NRFI plays for Saturday, September 7th. Note that odds may change before the first pitch but are accurate as of writing.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Saturday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(All odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Starting Pitchers: Mitchell Parker vs. Mitch Keller
Today’s first NRFI pick brings us to an under-the-radar matchup between the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates. It's not an obvious play based on the starting pitchers, but some favorable trends point to a scoreless first inning. Note that this is the second game of a doubleheader, so keep an eye on the NRFI odds not posted as of this writing.
Nationals starter Mitchell Parker has a solid 18-7 NRFI record in his rookie season thus far. Recently, though, the left-hander has been a bit better. Parker has tossed a scoreless first inning in six of his last eight starts and nine of his last 12 outings.
Overall, Parker's 13 first-inning runs allowed across 25 starts this season don't look great on the surface. However, nine of those runs came in a pair of blowup outings against the Phillies and Brewers. Otherwise, the Washington southpaw has allowed only four runs in his 23 other opening frames.
This matchup against the Pirates is a favorable one for Parker. The Pirates have poor numbers against left-handed pitching in the first inning this season: .247 wOBA (28th in MLB), 54 wRC+, .179 batting average and 30.2% strikeout rate. Pittsburgh also has a below-average offense vs. lefties over the past month (.298 wOBA, 87 wRC+).
On the other side, Pirates starter Mitch Keller gives us even more confidence in the NRFI. The right-hander has a 20-7 NRFI record this season, including 17-4 over his past 21 outings. He's also thrown a scoreless first inning in nine straight home starts. On that note, Keller's home/road splits are firmly in his favor today (2.81 ERA at home vs. 4.82 ERA on road).
Keller will face a Nationals offense that's been among the league's worst in the first inning all season. Specifically over the past month, Washington's .185 wOBA, .140 BA and 16 wRC+ against righties in the first inning are dead last in the MLB.
This is also a meeting between two of the top NRFI teams in the league this year. Washington (60% to NRFI) and Pittsburgh (59%) have both been plenty profitable in this space. Grab the NRFI as Parker and Keller both find success in the opening frame.
Bet: NRFI (Odds Not Yet Posted)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers: Eduardo Rodriguez vs. Yusei Kikuchi
As the MLB playoff push ramps up, Saturday afternoon's matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Houston Astros features two teams right in the thick of it. In this interleague clash, we have two veteran pitchers on the mound and a pair of dangerous offenses. Let's see how to attack this one.
Yusei Kikuchi has been excellent since joining the Astros at the trade deadline with a 2.57 ERA over his past six starts. Even so, the left-hander could have trouble with Arizona early on. The Diamondbacks have the league's best first-inning offense against left-handed pitching this season (.395 wOBA, .343 BA, .918 OPS). They also boast elite numbers vs. lefties over the past month overall (.349 wOBA, 123 wRC+).
Then there's Kikuchi's shaky track record in the first inning this season. The Houston southpaw has a 19-9 NRFI mark overall, but he's just 8-7 at home. Kikuchi also has a 4.18 ERA and .274 batting average allowed in his opening frames this year.
Meanwhile, the Astros could get to Arizona starter Eduardo Rodriguez in the first inning. The left-hander has a perfect 5-0 NRFI record so far this season, but it's a small sample size. There's potential negative regression for a pitcher who has a career 3.91 ERA in the first inning. He'll face an Astros lineup that has top-10 numbers vs. lefties in the first inning this year (.336 wOBA, .286 batting average, .766 OPS).
Houston's top hitters notably have had success head-to-head against Rodriguez. Jose Altuve (.333 batting average), Yordan Alvarez (.400) and Alex Bregman (.320) all have favorable numbers in this matchup. Take the YRFI today as we bank on either (or both) the Diamondbacks and Astros to plate a run in the first inning.
Bet: YRFI (-120)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Saturday: