MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Sunday (8/11)
The MLB returns on Sunday with a stacked 13-game slate. I'm heading to the prop sheet to get some skin in the game, where I've narrowed in on three No Runs First Inning (NRFI) plays for today's action.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Sunday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Detroit Tigers (+154) vs. San Francisco Giants (-185) | O/U 7.5 (-118/-102)
Starting Pitchers: Keider Montero vs. Hayden Birdsong
The Giants have won the first two games (3-2, 3-1) of this series versus the Tigers, which means they'll be looking to break out the brooms this afternoon. They'll turn to Hayden Birdsong to get them there, while the Tigers counter with Keider Montero. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. ET from Oracle Park in San Francisco, CA.
While both Keider (5.62 ERA) and Birdsong (4.73 ERA) have struggled this year, this NRFI play is all about fading the offenses. Both offensive units have been bottom-half units over the last two weeks. Over the last 14 days, the Giants are ranked 17th in wRC+ (102) and 19th in wOBA (.309), while the Tigers are dead last in both categories (59, .249).
San Francisco is currently on an 8-3 run to the NRFI, which includes cashing the prop bet in each of the first two games in this series. Overall, they have the 11th-best NRFI record in the league, sitting at 66-53 (55.5%). Detroit's 60-58 (50.8%) on the year, but has a better NRFI record on the road, where they're 33-28 (54.1%). With neither offense in its best form, both pitchers can manage to keep a clean first frame.
Bet: NRFI (-130)
Philadelphia Phillies (-125) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+105) | O/U 8.5 (-122/+102)
Starting Pitchers: Merrill Kelly vs. Cristopher Sanchez
The Diamondbacks cruised to an 11-1 victory last night, moving them to 6-1 in their last seven games. They'll try to keep things rolling when they turn to Merrill Kelly this afternoon. The Phillies opt for Cristopher Sanchez in this National League contest, which is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET from Chase Field in Phoenix, AZ.
Kelly makes his first start since returning from the 60-day injured list (IL), where he was recovering from a shoulder injury. The 35-year-old was throwing well at the beginning of the year, logging a 2.19 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over four starts (24.2 IP). He'll face a Philadelphia offense that has been struggling recently, sitting 22nd in wRC+ (99) and 17th in wOBA (.311) over the last 14 days.
As for Sanchez, he's putting together a solid season. He enters the series finale at 8-7 with a 3.27 ERA (16th) and 1.26 WHIP (50th). I like the head-to-head numbers for the left-hander, who has held the Snakes' current lineup to a slash line of .216/.256/.270 over 37 at-bats. While there's a ton of offensive talent on both teams, I think these pitchers are equally as threatening. With a -105 price tag, it's worth a shot on the NRFI.
Bet: NRFI (-105)
New York Mets (+110) vs. Seattle Mariners (-130) | O/U 7.5 (-105/-115)
Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino vs. Luis Castillo
The MLB's 13-game slate wraps up out west as the Mets take on the Mariners in the Sunday Night Baseball matchup. Luis Severino heads to the bump for New York, while Seattle will ride with Luis Castillo. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET from T-Mobile Park in Seattle, WA.
These are two of the best NRFI teams in the league. The Mets sit at 74-43 (63.2%) on the year, which is the second-best mark in the league. The Mariners are fifth in the league, coming in at 70-48 (59.3%). New York is on a very profitable NRFI run, cashing the prop bet in 15 of their last 21 games (71.4%).
As for this matchup, Severino (4.06 ERA) brings a dominant head-to-head record to the table. The right-hander has limited the Mariners to a slash line of .174/.240/.174 over 23 at-bats. On the other hand, Castillo (3.48 ERA) has held the Mets to a slash line of .230/.309/.391 over 87 at-bats. That includes the top four hitters of Francisco Lindor (3-for-9), Brandon Nimmo (1-for-6), J.D. Martinez (0-for-2) and Pete Alonso (1-for-9) going a combined 5-26 (.192) against Castillo. I think both pitchers turn in flawless first innings in this primetime showdown.
Bet: NRFI (-125)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Sunday: