MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Thursday (4/4)
Baseball season is back and there is no better way to gamble than on the NRFI. For those unaware, NRFI stands for No-Run First Inning. It's a popular betting market where bettors wager on whether the first inning of an MLB game will end with zero runs scored by either team. Pretty simple. These bets heavily depend on the starting pitchers and consider factors like pitcher stats, team tendencies, ballpark conditions, and weather. Some teams consistently score early, while others struggle in the first inning. NRFI bets are the best because they're quick – you'll know the outcome within minutes. Second, some pitchers excel in the first inning due to their repertoire or mental approach. NRFI bets capitalize on this. Lastly, if you've done the research, NRFI bets can provide an edge over other markets. I'm here to help provide that edge. As always, shop around for the best odds and be on the lookout for any lineup changes or injury news. Let's get to it.
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Wednesday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Last Time: 0-0 | MLB Season: 0-0
Cleveland Guardians (+130) at Minnesota Twins (-155)
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee vs. Pablo Lopez
On the surface, it looks like Pablo Lopez should excel in a situation like this, playing at home early in the year but if you dive deeper, the numbers might tell a different story. The expected leadoff hitter for the Cleveland Guardians, Steven Kwan, is 5-for-11 (.455) lifetime against Lopez which is a good start if you're looking to score early. The following expected batters boast similar profiles with Andres Gimenez a career 5-for-11 (.455) batter against Lopez as well with multiple doubles followed by Jose Ramirez sitting a 4-for-13 (.308). The guys at the top of Cleveland's lineup have all seen the Twins’ ace a handful of times and have hit him well.
Even if Cleveland does fail to score in the first inning, the fallback of Minnesota producing a run isn't a bad option either. Tanner Bibee had an okay start against Oakland in his season debut but he allowed two runs in the second inning and another in the third. Batters are capable of picking him up early, with some pop in the lineup as well, highlighted by Byron Buxton and Edouard Julien. Bibee's career first-inning ERA sits at 4.50 which is his highest of any inning with a marginal gap in his home and road splits.
The weather doesn't look too bad as it should be a bit cold but dry. Both pitchers might take a bit to settle in and the matchups are just too good to pass up the plus-odds value. Generally, I expect a surprising showcase of runs out of Cleveland, especially from the top of their lineup, so you could get a little risky with first-run scoring if you so choose.
Play: Yes Runs First Inning (+105 on DraftKings)
Miami Marlins (+124) at St. Louis Cardinals (-148)
Starting Pitchers: Ryan Weathers vs. Lance Lynn
I won't bury the lede here and simply say if there is a time to bet YRFI, this is your game. Lance Lynn is coming off one of the better performances in recent history by keeping the Dodgers scoreless but don't be fooled. He grows older every day and has historically struggled in the first inning. He had over a 7.00 ERA in the first frame last year and that number sits over 6.00 in the last two years. Jake Burger was a teammate of his last year, which could help or hurt, but it at least allows the Marlins to familiarize themselves with Lynn's tendencies, and get a jump on scoring. Can't say I'm crazy about the odds but Luis Arraez has seen over 25 at-bats against Lynn and has already homered off him with a .320 batting average lifetime. This goes well with Josh Bell and Jake Burger behind to potentially knock him in.
If the Marlins fail to score, Weathers hasn't exactly been electric early in games in his career either with a 6.00 ERA in the first inning last year. Paul Goldschmidt is always a danger to go yard and has positive splits against southpaws. An equally dangerous Nolan Arenado sits in the lineup as well, providing extra back-up for a run to score early, and for you to cash your first run inning bet. I don't think there will be many games where I support scoring in the first inning on both bets, so let's get crazy.
Play: Yes Runs First Inning (-103 on BetRivers)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: