MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (10/1)
We have finally made it to postseason baseball. The most electric postseason of all the major professional sports, in my opinion. The regular season ended dramatically on Monday afternoon, with a doubleheader ultimately leading to the Mets and Braves grabbing the final two National League Wild Card spots (sorry, Diamondbacks fans). Tuesday offers a full four-game slate of playoff baseball action, with Tigers-Astros kicking things off in the mid-afternoon, followed by three evening games.
The best of the best is all that remains, as great pitching will take on great hitting on a nightly basis. As such, I'm going to pick my No Runs First Inning (NRFI) spots carefully and not force plays just because of the limited amount of games on the slate. I have just one play today and it features my favorite pitcher in the entire league.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI: 61-48 (+3.02 Units) | Odds courtesy Caesars Sportsbook
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers
Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez vs. Tarik Skubal
Framber Valdez finds himself starting yet another Game 1 of a postseason series after another incredible year, posting a 15-7 record with a 2.91 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. His xERA indicates these numbers are pretty indicative of how good he has been, as his 3.36 xERA puts him in the top quartile of all pitchers. Valdez’s swing-and-miss numbers and hard-hit metrics have never necessarily jumped off the page, but he sits around league average in terms of chase%, whiff% and K%, with an incredibly low barrel rate of 5.3% that ranks in the 86th percentile.
If you know anything about Valdez it’s that he makes his hay by keeping the ball on the ground, which he has done at an elite level yet again, ranking in the 98th percentile with a ridiculous 61.7% ground ball rate. Valdez draws the most favorable matchup of the day, against a Tigers team that certainly didn't rely on their offense to make it to this point. Detroit ranks 22nd or worse in home runs, batting average (AVG), OPS and slugging rate (SLG), with the MLB's second-worst on-base percentage (OBP). They also see their numbers dip against left-handed pitchers, giving Valdez the splits advantage in a game I expect him to have a lot of success.
I didn't miss the opportunity to cash a NRFI spot in Tarik Skubal's last regular season start, and I'm certainly not going to miss out on his first career postseason start. Emmanuel Clase put up some insane numbers to make the American League Cy Young race somewhat of a conversation. However, what Skubal did this year at the top of Detroit's rotation was incredible. He posted an 18-4 record with an unfathomable 2.39 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and he racked up a league-leading 228 strikeouts. Skubal's advanced numbers are just as good as his actual numbers, as he ranks above the 70th percentile in barrel%, ground ball% and chase%, above the 80th percentile in xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit%, and above the 90th percentile in xERA, whiff%, K% and BB%.
Simply put, there isn't a single hole in his game and he dominated opposing lineups every fifth day for the entire season. There are not many holes to poke in this Astros lineup as a whole, although it's highly unlikely Yordan Alvarez will play today, as he has been sidelined since September 22 with a knee injury. His playoff status as a whole is somewhat in jeopardy. That would be a nice benefit for Skubal and the Tigers, although I'd have no problem making this play even if Alvarez does suit up.
Pick: NRFI (-160)
Make sure to check out our best bets for Tuesday: