Major League Baseball (MLB) has 13 games on the docket tonight. Two of them have appealing No Run First Inning (NRFI) bets. Between pitchers with excellent early-game numbers, unimpressive tops of the order or a combination of both, the following two games check one or both boxes.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Miami Marlins (-135) vs. New York Mets (-160) | O/U 7.5 (-115/-105)
Starting Pitchers: Sandy Alcantara vs. Kodai Senga
The Mets have a talented lineup, starting at the top. According to FanGraphs, their top-five projected hitters have had at least a 110 wRC+ against righties since 2023. Juan Soto (174 wRC+) is the team’s elite bopper in that group, but Brandon Nimmo (124 wRC+) and Francisco Lindor (122 wRC+) have also had a wRC+ north of 120 against righties since 2023.
Nevertheless, Sandy Alcantara is a monster early in games. Since 2018, Alcantara’s ERA the first time through the order as a starting pitcher was 2.92, 2.76, 1.69, 1.41, 1.39, 2.82, and 0.00. Alcantara missed the 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he came out firing bullets against the Pirates on Opening Day, holding their nine hitters to zero hits, one walk, and four strikeouts the first time through the order.
Unsurprisingly, Alcantara’s dominance the first time through the order has extended to his numbers in the first inning. Per Baseball Reference, in 139 career starts, Alcantara has had a 2.85 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in the first inning and held opposing hitters to a .665 OPS. He can do his part and keep the Mets’ high-powered offense off the board in the first inning.
Kodai Senga doesn’t have the lengthy track record of early-game dominance in MLB that Alcantara boasts. However, he’s pitched well and has an easier assignment than Miami’s ace.
Senga has spun a 3.23 ERA, 3.19 FIP, 4.16 xFIP, 27.8 K%, and 46.7 GB% against 270 batters faced the first time through an order in his young Major League career after dominating in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB).
The 32-year-old righty has an ideal top-of-the-order to face tonight. Only one of Miami’s projected top-five hitters has exceeded 300 plate appearances against righties since 2023, only one has a wRC+ above 120, and Kyle Stowers (60 wRC+) and Matt Mervis (38 wRC+) have failed miserably against righties. Thus, I expect the NL East matchup between the Mets and Marlins to begin scoreless through at least the first inning.
Athletics (+115) vs. Chicago Cubs (-135) | O/U 8.0 (-115/-105)
Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino vs. Justin Steele
The Cubs lit up the scoreboard for 18 runs in Sacramento against the Athletics last night. The outburst might make gamblers uneasy about placing an NRFI wager. However, Luis Severino can cool them off, at least early.
In 31 starts last year, Severino allowed just six runs (three earned) and had a 0.87 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .411 OPS. In 157 games in Severino’s career, he’s allowed 75 runs with a 4.01 ERA, allowing only a .718 OPS to opposing batters.
Severino’s numbers his first time through the order are more impressive. He had a 1.68 ERA his first time through the order last season and tallied a 3.03 ERA his first time through the order in his career. Severino doesn’t have an easy assignment in the first inning, but his track record suggests he’ll get the job done.
Justin Steele’s path to a scoreless first inning is more straightforward. Two of the projected top-five hitters for the Athletics have had an 84 wRC+ or worse against lefties since 2023.
As for Steele, he’s a beast early in games. He’s held 800 batters to a 1.92 ERA, 3.15 xFIP, and .261 wOBA the first time through the order as a starting pitcher since 2021. Additionally, Steele has a 2.43 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 89 career starts. Finally, even with Chicago’s offensive outburst last night, Caesars Sportsbook has an unalarming Over/Under of 8.0 runs for the game, enhancing my appeal for suggesting this NRFI wager.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
