Tuesday’s baseball slate is jam-packed. Among the many games today and tonight, two have enticing No Run First Inning (NRFI) selections.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Innings (NRFI) Picks
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Kansas City Royals (+160) at New York Yankees (-190) | O/U 8.5 (-118/-104)
Starting Pitchers: Michael Wacha vs. Max Fried
Max Fried hasn’t skipped a beat in his first season in the American League. Instead, he’s toying with hitters. According to FanGraphs, in three starts spanning 17.1 innings this year, Fried has a 1.56 ERA, 2.87 xERA, 2.76 xFIP, 2.66 SIERA and 1.21 WHIP.
The veteran lefty is also a handful for hitters in his first trip through the order. Since 2022, he’s had a 1.65 ERA, 1.69 ERA, 3.13 ERA and 2.70 ERA in his first trip through the order as a starting pitcher. In that span, he also had a 3.15 xFIP, 2.75 xFIP, 3.31 xFIP and 3.26 xFIP in his first time through the order as a starting pitcher.
Fried also tied up batters in the first inning. In 76 starts since 2022, Fried has allowed only 18 runs in the first inning. He’s a stud in the opening frame. Fried’s matchup isn’t imposing today, either. Bobby Witt’s 135 wRC+ against lefties since 2023 is the only one among Kansas City’s top-five projected batters above 103. Furthermore, two of Kansas City’s top-five projected hitters have had a wRC+ under 90. Fried shouldn’t have any difficulty blanking the Royals in the first inning.
Michael Wacha’s ability to keep the Yankees off the scoreboard in the first inning is more questionable. Four of New York’s top-five projected batters have had at least a 115 wRC+ versus righties since 2023 or debuting.
Wacha’s sledding is tough in the first inning. Nevertheless, the veteran righty is superb early in games. Since 2022, he’s allowed only 46 runs in his first time through the order as a starting pitcher in 79 starts. Moreover, Wacha has allowed only 29 runs in the first inning in those 79 starts. Finally, he hasn’t allowed a run in the first inning in three starts this season.
Pick: NRFI (-111)
Houston Astros (-126) at St. Louis Cardinals (+108) | O/U 7.5 (-102/-120)
Starting Pitchers: Hunter Brown vs. Erick Fedde
The Cardinals and Astros have a pitcher-friendly Over/Under of 7.5 runs, with the Under juiced to -120. It can get started with a scoreless first inning.
The Red Birds traded for Erick Fedde last year, and he’s excelled when taking the ball at home. In five starts spanning 27.1 innings at home since the Cardinals acquired him, he’s had a 1.98 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Fedde allowed only six runs in those starts.
Fedde has also come out of the gate on fire since returning to the Majors last year. According to Baseball Reference, Fedde has allowed only 11 runs in the first inning of 34 starts since last season.
Interestingly, Fedde is the B-side of this projected pitching duel. Hunter Brown and the Astros are favored as Brown is cruising this year. In three starts spanning 18 innings, he has a 2.00 ERA, 3.11 xERA, 2.53 xFIP, 2.49 SIERA and 0.78 WHIP.
The young righty also has a track record of succeeding in road venues. In 179 innings on the road since 2023, Brown has had a 3.57 ERA, 3.18 xFIP, and 1.22 WHIP.
Finally, Brown is nifty in his first pass through the order. He’s spun a 3.55 ERA, 2.97 xFIP, and 1.36 WHIP against 576 batters in his first time through the order as a starting pitcher since reaching the Majors in 2022. As a result, I expect Fedde and Brown to keep their opponents off the scoreboard in the first inning tonight.
Pick: NRFI (-128)
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
