MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (4/16)
I have just one No Runs First Inning (NRFI) play on this Tuesday's slate of MLB games, but it involves two of my favorite young pitchers. Both are hard-throwing right-handed pitchers with absolutely electric stuff, and they rank among the best in the MLB when it comes to generating whiffs.
It also features one of my favorite scoring environments to target in this market, as the home ballpark plays dramatically below league average regarding offensive performance.
The market seems to agree with me, as this game features the lowest total on the board today. I would play this prop up to a -150 price.
Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook | 2024 NRFI (5-4; +0.04 Units)
Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Hunter Greene vs. Logan Gilbert
Logan Gilbert has debatably been the best starting pitcher on a loaded Mariners rotation and will get the start against the Reds tonight. Gilbert has yet to record a decision on the season despite posting an outstanding WHIP of 0.84 and a 2.66 ERA. His 2024 advanced metrics suggest that he has improved from his already solid 2023 performance, as his swing-and-miss numbers have dramatically spiked. His K% and whiff% both come in north of the 80th percentile, and his walk numbers have remained extremely low as he has issued a free pass to fewer than 4% of the batters he has faced.
While Cincinnati's lineup is underrated, Gilbert has already faced some pretty tough offenses in the Red Sox, Brewers and Blue Jays this season, so he'll certainly be up for the challenge that the Reds present. Gilbert was also lights out in his only home start this year, conceding only 1 ER and striking out eight while allowing just four hits in 7.0 IP. I've already successfully backed Gilbert once in this market, and I will go back to the well tonight.
The young, hard-throwing right-hander Hunter Greene will get the rock for the Reds today in what will be his fourth start of the season. The eye test tells you that Greene has all the "stuff" to be a dominating pitcher in this league for many years to come, and his advanced numbers reflect that sentiment. While he has a 4.86 ERA so far, his 2.49 ERA is a full two-plus runs lower, and his xBA of 0.170 is just shy of the 90th percentile. This indicates that Greene has been on the receiving end of some really bad luck in 2024. His swing-and-miss numbers mirror that of Gilbert, as he sits north of the 76th percentile in K%, whiff% and chase%. Plus, his hard-hit metrics have also been excellent; Greene ranks among the top 1/3 of pitchers in both hard hit% and barrel%, and he ranks above the 80th percentile in average exit velocity.
The Mariners have carried their underwhelming 2023 offensive numbers into 2024, currently ranking 25th or worse in BA, AVG, OBP and OPS while hitting HRs at a bottom-10 rate.
Putting everything together, Gilbert has already been tested on the young season. He has improved his metrics from an already good 2023 campaign to become a standout on this loaded Mariners pitching staff. He does an excellent job of making batters earn their way on base and his whiff potential is among the best in the game, which I think plays very well against this young Reds team. On the other side, Hunter Greene's advanced numbers suggest that he is primed for a stellar 2024, and a little bit of positive regression in the luck department will see his actual numbers come closer to those great expected numbers. His stuff should play very well against this Mariners team that continues to struggle to find a pulse offensively. Additionally, this is one of my favorite home environments to target in these NRFI plays. Since 2022, T-Mobile Park ranks dead-last in overall offensive ballpark factors, sitting 18% below league average.
Bet: NRFI (-140)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: