MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (4/23)
I have selected two NRFI plays for this Tuesday night's slate of MLB action, though the write-ups for both games may seem repetitive, as the games mirror each other in many ways.
Both games feature pretty middling offenses, with pitchers that don't necessarily carry a lot of cache, playing in ballparks that tend to be very pitcher-friendly. Neither game features standout offensive weather conditions either, with wind and rain expected in Cleveland and low-50s expected in San Francisco this evening.
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Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
Odds courtesy of Bet365 | 2024 NRFI (6-6; -0.60 Units)
Boston Red Sox @ Cleveland Guardians
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Houck vs. Ben Lively
Ben Lively will make his second start of the season tonight, ironically against the same team that he made his first start against. Lively was excellent last Thursday against the Red Sox in Fenway Park, racking up seven Ks and only allowing one walk in five IP. He allowed only 2.0 ER, one of which resulted from a balk, and his underlying metrics were fantastic. Not a single one of the Red Sox hitters connected on a barrel against Lively, and only about 1/3 of the batters he faced had a hard-hit ball. The Red Sox have been a bottom-half team in terms of both AVG and OBP in the early season, and Rafael Devers is questionable to return tonight after missing a few games due to injury. Lively had a lot of success against this same lineup in a more hitter-friendly ballpark last week, and I like him to keep that going tonight.
Meanwhile, Tanner Houck has emerged as one of the better pitchers in the American League on a Boston rotation that many expected to be mediocre. His 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP are both phenomenal and are supported by his advanced numbers. His xERA of 2.84 falls just shy of the 80th percentile, his K% is above the 70th percentile and he's walked under 2% of the batters that he has faced, which is among the tops in the league. His barrel% is a very respectable 5.5%, and when he does get hit hard, it tends to be on the ground, as his ground ball rate of 52.1% is north of the 80th percentile. Houck also faced off against Lively in the aforementioned game last week, pitching all nine innings and striking out nine while only allowing three hits (0 ER) and not walking a single batter in a gem of a performance. Similar to Lively, I like him to build off of that performance and have another great outing against the same opposing lineup tonight.
Both pitchers also benefit from pitching at Progressive Field instead of Fenway Park tonight. Progressive ranks 27th in overall offensive park factors and second-worst in home run rate of all ballparks since 2022.
Bet: NRFI (-105)
New York Mets @ San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers: Luis Severino vs. Logan Webb
Logan Webb has been one of the more under-appreciated pitchers in all of baseball over the past few seasons and has gotten off to another great start in 2024. Webb does an elite job of keeping the ball out of the air, with a ground ball rate of 56.4% that puts him in the 90th percentile. He also doesn't tend to get hit all that hard, with a barrel% and average exit velo that both come in north of the 60th percentile. Because he caters to a pitching style that keeps the ball in play, his xBA isn't all that great, but it plays very well in Oracle Park, especially with some of the defensive upgrades that the Giants have made recently with players like Matt Chapman.
The Mets have been pretty middling in most offensive categories this season, and as long as Webb doesn't throw any meatballs to Pete Alonso or Francisco Lindor, I love his chances to have a clean first inning and a great outing overall.
Luis Severino has had a pretty smooth transition to his new team, moving across town from the Bronx to Queens. His 2.14 ERA is spectacular, and he mirrors Webb's underlying statistics in a couple of key categories. Like Webb, his ground ball rate of 59% is among the best in the game, which is critical after he dealt with a ridiculous home run problem in 2023. His barrel% is south of 5%, sitting just shy of the 70th percentile, and his fastball velocity has not seemed to tail off even after all of the injuries he has sustained throughout his career.
The Giants’ offense looks a lot like the Mets this season, middling in most categories and not necessarily excelling in any one aspect. Similar to Webb, Severino's stuff should play pretty well in Oracle Park tonight as a pitcher who has relied on pitching to contact in the early parts of this season.
Speaking of Oracle Park, it's just as friendly to pitchers as Progressive Field is, actually tied in terms of overall offensive ballpark factors (27th) and home run rate (29th).
Bet: NRFI (-120)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: