MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Tuesday (4/9)
Tuesday brings us a full slate of MLB games with every team in action, providing plenty of opportunities to target with today's No Runs First Inning (NRFI) props.
The slate leaves a little bit to be desired in terms of pitching matchups, which means that I had to pivot and fade some of the better offenses in the American League. The bright side is that it does add some value to these plays, meaning we get to back some pretty elite pitchers at a lower price than you might normally see in this market. It's been a good start to the season for these NRFI plays, but that's in the past, so let's keep it rolling.
Here are my favorite NRFI plays for today, Tuesday, March 9.
Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning Picks
2024 NRFI (5-0; +2.04 Units)
Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes vs. Brayan Bello
Brayan Bello gets the start for the Red Sox in this game. He is a young right-handed pitcher with tons of potential that I was very high on coming into the 2024 season. Bello's go-to pitch is a hard-sinking fastball, which he pairs with a changeup that complements the sinker very nicely. He was among the best in baseball at inducing ground balls last season, with a ground ball rate of 56.3% that placed him in the 92nd percentile of all pitchers. His sub-7% walk rate is good for the 76th percentile, and his 7% barrel rate last year was in the 65th percentile.
Though the Orioles’ offense is certainly nothing to scoff at, Bello did pick up a victory against the O's in his only start against them last year and has held most of their better bats in check over the span of his young career. Ryan Mountcastle, Anthony Santander, Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman are a combined 2-15 against him with no HRs and only 1 XBH. The Orioles have also been slightly underwhelming offensively to begin this season, with an OPS that ranks 19th, a bottom-10 AVG and an OBP that currently ranks second-worst in the MLB.
Conversely, the newly minted Oriole Corbin Burnes will get the ball for Baltimore. Burnes has cemented himself as one of the game's best for quite some time now, with a career 3.25 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. In 2024's limited sample size, he has been even better, with a 2.31 ERA and 0.86 WHIP, with underlying metrics that absolutely light up the page.
In 2023, Burnes was absolutely elite in avoiding hard contact, ranking above the 86th percentile in barrel%, hard hit% and average exit velocity. His expected ERA and expected BA were 3.38 and 0.224, respectively, which were both outstanding. His swing-and-miss metrics of K%, chase rate and whiff% were all north of the 60th percentile. The Red Sox have been pretty middling as an offense this young season, which might be mildly concerning, as they've played against two of the worst pitching staffs in the MLB between the A's and Angels.
While Camden Yards used to be one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball, that sentiment has drastically shifted since they moved their left-field fence back before the 2022 season. Since 2022, Camden Yards ranks 19th overall in offensive ballpark factors and 22nd overall in HR rate, which are significant dips from years previous.
Bet: NRFI (-115 via Bet365)
Houston Astros @ Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers: Cristian Javier vs. Cole Ragans
If you aren't yet familiar with Cole Ragans of the Kansas City Royals, allow this to be your introduction. The young southpaw has quickly emerged as the ace of a very young and fun Royals team and figures to be a staple in the AL Cy Young race for many years to come, so long as he stays healthy. Ragans posted a 3.47 ERA with a 1.16 in 2023, and he might have actually been a bit unlucky based on his advanced numbers. His xERA of 3.33 and xBA of 0.212 were both in the middle of the 80th percentile. His Whiff% and K% were also both north of the 80th percentile, and his barrel% and average exit velocity ranked in the top 25% of MLB pitchers.
His two starts in 2024 have been terrific, as he has allowed only 2 ER over 12.1 innings with 16 total strikeouts. The Astros still have an outstanding lineup despite their early season struggles. However, I like the fact that Ragans might be able to somewhat neutralize the lefty power bats of the Astros in Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker as an LHP. I trust Ragans to continue his hot start with another quality outing against Houston tonight.
Cristian Javier has had a very interesting career, bursting onto the scene in 2022 before really underwhelming compared to expectations as a potential dark horse Cy Young candidate in 2023. If his first two starts of the season are any indication of how the rest of his season will go, it looks like Javier might've returned to the form that saw him dominate two years ago. He has yet to surrender an earned run in 11 innings pitched this season against two pretty high-powered offenses in the Yankees and Blue Jays. In that 2022 season, Javier ranked above the 96th percentile in both xERA and xBA with an "invisiball" fastball that racked up strikeouts at an insanely high 33.2% clip. He was also able to avoid hard contact for the most part, with a hard-hit% that put him in the 82nd percentile.
While the Royals have gotten off to a pretty solid start offensively this year, they were unquestionably a bottom-10 offense in 2023 that significantly lacked pop in their lineup. While I do think that they are improved compared to last year, I love Javier's matchup as an experienced pitcher against this young Royals squad. I also think he's way closer to the pitcher that we saw in 2022 than the one we saw last year. While Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City has graded out above average in terms of overall ballpark factors since 2022, its HR factor is actually tied at 22 with that of Camden Yards.
Bet: NRFI (-110 via DraftKings)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday: