MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks: Dodgers vs. Mets (Friday)
For the first time in a few articles, we have multiple games to choose from in the No Runs First Inning (NRFI) market tonight. I've got my sights set on the early game between the Dodgers and Mets, as the later game features a matchup between Gavin Williams of the Guardians, who has really poor numbers and metrics on the year, and the erratic and inexperienced Luis Gil of the Yankees.
Of course, this means fading two of the hottest offenses in baseball down the stretch, but I like how Jack Flaherty and David Peterson have been throwing the ball lately and I prefer this spot for the NRFI play this evening.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI Record: 63-49 (+3.68 Units) | Odds via BetMGM
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Starting Pitchers: David Peterson vs. Jack Flaherty
David Peterson was extremely effective in his abbreviated 2024 season, posting a 2.90 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in his 21 starts. Peterson's sinker-four seam fastball repertoire graded out in the 91st percentile in terms of run value on the season and paired with a changeup that ranked in the 87th percentile. While most of his advanced statistics won't blow you away, he did grade out right at league average in terms of chase% and whiff% and fell just shy of the 60th percentile in barrel%.
Where he excelled was his ability to generate ground balls, where he ranked in the 85th percentile with a 50.8% ground ball rate. It takes a lot of nit-picking to poke any sort of holes in this Dodgers offense, though it does help that Peterson will get the benefit of pitching to Ohtani and a hobbled Freddie Freeman in their decisively worse hitting splits to start this game.
Meanwhile, Jack Flaherty had quite the season, establishing himself as a top trade candidate at the trade deadline and winding up as the most reliable and dominant arm atop the Dodgers’ rotation. His season-long ERA of 3.17 and WHIP of 1.07 were both phenomenal, with all the advanced metrics to back that up. His xERA of 3.51 put him in the 70th percentile, with a hard-hit% and average exit velocity that both graded out above the 60th percentile. His calling card was his ability to generate the swing-and-miss, ranking in the 72nd percentile in chase% and above the 90th percentile in both K% and whiff%.
He had excellent command of the strike zone as well, ranking in the 83rd percentile with a 5.9% walk rate. He'll have a splits advantage in tonight's matchup as well, as the Mets’ season-long contact and power numbers took an appreciable drop against right-handed pitchers. It takes a strong stomach to take the NRFI against these two high-powered offenses, but I think this pitching matchup sets up well and I prefer it over the NY-CLE matchup in the nightcap.
Pick: NRFI (-135 @ BetMGM)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: