MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks: Friday (8/30)
As August comes to a close, I have three No Runs First Inning (NRFI) plays for Friday as we enter the home stretch as teams gear up to make their push toward the postseason. The theme for today's NRFI plays is positive regression, as I'm backing several pitchers tonight who might not have the greatest season-long numbers but should be primed to finish this season strong. Most of the guys featured in this article are veterans with career numbers and performances that outperform their 2024 statistics. Buying the "dip" on some of these pitchers provides some pretty tolerable prices, which can sometimes get out of hand in the NRFI market.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI Record: 48-41 (+0.50 Units)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers: Ranger Suarez vs. Reynaldo Lopez
Ranger Suarez has bounced back in a big way this season, arguably having his best MLB season. He has pitched to the tune of a 2.82 ERA (83rd percentile xERA of 3.15) and a 1.06 WHIP, with a hard-hit% that ranks in the 78th percentile with an average exit velocity and barrel% that both come in above the 85th percentile. He's been able to generate the swing-and-miss as well, ranking in the 62nd percentile in K% with a chase rate in the 70th percentile. He goes up against a Braves offense I have picked on way more than I intended to this season, as the regression monster and injury bug have turned last year's unstoppable offense into a very middling lineup in 2024.
Braves right-handed veteran Reynaldo Lopez is also having one of the best seasons of his career, albeit outpitching expectations with an incredible 2.02 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. His underlying metrics aren't necessarily eye-popping, but his chase rate, whiff% and K% all grade out comfortably above the 60th percentile. The Phillies lineup he will face is not a fun one to fade, but they do have significantly worse hitting splits against righties. Lopez has also been fantastic against their lineup this season, allowing only one earned run and seven hits to the Phils and striking out 16 batters in 11 combined innings.
Pick: NRFI (-115 @ DraftKings Sportsbook, Bet365, BetMGM)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Taj Bradley vs. Martin Perez
Second-year right-hander Taj Bradley has made a leap from his debut season with the Rays, improving in nearly every statistical category. Bradley holds a respectable 3.77 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, with an xBA of 0.225 that sits in the 73rd percentile. While he struggles a bit in terms of limiting hard contact, his chase rate and whiff% both come in above the 59th percentile, with a K% just shy of the 80th percentile. The Padres have a pretty underrated lineup overall, but I like the splits for Bradley against All-Star Jurickson Profar and power bat Manny Machado, as Profar has much better splits against lefties and Machado's slugging numbers take a dip against righties.
Padres left-handed veteran Martin Perez has some pretty abysmal season-long numbers and metrics, but those numbers are a large reflection of his time spent with the Pirates in the first half of the season. Since making his first start with the Padres on August 3, he has surrendered only eight runs over five starts, resulting in a 2.70 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. His K:BB ratio is also over 3:1, which is miles better than it was in Pittsburgh. Whether it's the change of scenery or an upgraded coaching staff, whatever he has found in San Diego has benefitted him greatly. I'm banking on that success to continue tonight. Perez also has a pretty favorable matchup against a Rays lineup that has disappointed in 2024, ranking 24th or worse in home runs, batting average (AVG), on-base percentage (OPB), OPS and slugging percentage (SLG).
Pick: NRFI (-120 @ FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Pablo Lopez vs. Kevin Gausman
Twins right-hander Pablo Lopez has certainly been on the receiving end of some bad luck this season, as his 4.26 ERA is a very poor representation of the pitcher he has been. His xERA is significantly lower, sitting in the 71st percentile at 3.52, and his 1.14 WHIP is lower than it has been in his previous two seasons. His stuff is still there, with a 69th percentile whiff%, 76th percentile K% and 93rd percentile chase%. His ground ball%, barrel% and hard-hit% are all right at league average, and his average exit velocity is just shy of the 80th percentile. I think some positive regression is still coming for Lopez as we near the postseason. I have no problem backing him tonight. He draws an underwhelming Blue Jays lineup that has struggled to find any sort of consistency outside of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., as they rank in the bottom half of baseball in home runs, AVG, OPS and SLG.
Kevin Gausman is another pitcher primed for some late-season positive regression, as his 4.00+ ERA is also not indicative of him as a pitcher. Much like Martin Perez, he has been much better down the stretch, holding a 3.45 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP in July and a 2.84 ERA with a 1.07 WHIP in August. While some of his metrics have regressed, he still ranks above the 70th percentile in chase% and his walk rate of 6.8% sits in the top third of all pitchers. His xwOBA over his past 50 batters faced also backs up the notion that he's currently in good form, as he ranks well above league average in that category. The Twins lineup has quietly been extremely productive this season, though they do have a splits disadvantage against the righty Gausman this evening. They've also done a lot of their damage against the lowly White Sox this year, holding a 12-1 record against the Sox while playing just .500 baseball against the rest of the league.
Pick: NRFI (-125 @ BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: