MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks: Friday (9/6)
Football season is underway, but I'm still grinding away to find some winners in the No Runs First Inning (NRFI) market for baseball. Today's slate of games brings far more appetizing options than we saw on Tuesday, as I have three picks from a variety of different games across the league.
In my opinion, only one of these teams can claim to have a top-10 offense based on season-long performance, and all of the starting pitchers are underrated in one way or another. With other sports firing up, we've got a chance to take advantage of these softer markets as the MLB regular season comes to a close.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI Record: 51-42 (+1.55 Units)
Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Max Fried vs. Kevin Gausman
Albeit slightly hampered by injury, Max Fried has had another rock-solid season atop the Braves’ rotation. The veteran southpaw has a 3.52 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP, though I think some of his underlying numbers suggest he's been better than that. Fried has been among the elite in terms of limiting hard contact, with a hard-hit% and barrel% that both sit above the 80th percentile and an average exit velocity in the 95th percentile.
His ground ball rate is also an incredible 57.8%, so even if batters square him up, they're hitting it in the ground more often than not. Fried faces a Blue Jays lineup that's been carried in large part by one player this season, as they rank 13th or worse in batting average (AVG), on-base percentage (OBP), OPS and slugging rate (SLG), and 22nd in home runs. Toronto will also be in their inferior hitting splits tonight, as their offensive numbers drop against left-handed pitching.
Kevin Gausman is slated to get the start for the Blue Jays this evening in the midst of what has been a pretty disappointing season for his standards. Though his counting numbers aren't very good, Gausman has been climbing out of a hole that he dug himself early in the season, as he surrendered five or more earned runs in five separate starts before the calendar turned to July. He has yet to give up more than four earned runs in any of his starts since then. His three games of eight or more strikeouts since that point match his total through the end of June.
Advanced metrics support this notion as well, as his xwOBA over his last 50 batters is comfortably better than the league average. A lot of his recent success can be attributed to the re-emergence of his splitter, which he struggled to find consistency with in the early going. The Braves lineup resembles Toronto's in a lot of ways, ranking 12th or worse in AVG, OBP, OPS and SLG. They will be in their worst hitting splits in this game as well, as they have struggled more against right-handed pitching this season.
Pick: NRFI (-118 @ FanDuel Sportsbook)
Houston Astros vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Starting Pitchers: Framber Valdez vs. Brandon Pfaadt
You can usually throw out all the analytics when it comes to Astros lefty Framber Valdez as long as he's keeping his high ground ball rate, but this year Valdez is grading out much better in other categories than years previous. He's never been the biggest swing-and-miss guy, but his whiff% grades out in the 70th percentile with a very respectable K% in the 63rd percentile.
His ground ball rate still ranks among the best, in the 97th percentile at 60.4% and his 4.5% barrel rate also grades out above the 90th percentile. Put all that together, and you get another great season from Valdez, evident by his 3.11 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. There's honestly not much to pick at regarding this pretty potent Arizona offense, but I trust Valdez to get the job done.
Second-year man Brandon Pfaadt will go for the Diamondbacks, who is starting to come into his own this season after making a name for himself during last year's postseason run. While his 4.32 ERA doesn't jump off the page, it's significantly higher than his 72nd percentile xERA of 3.53, and he holds a very respectable 1.19 WHIP.
While most pitchers struggle in at least one facet of their game, Pfaadt sits right around league average in nearly every category, grading above the 60th percentile in barrel% and chase% with a phenomenal BB% in the 92nd percentile. While the Astros lineup he will face is certainly not bad, their numbers are a bit depressed compared to previous seasons, as they rank no higher than 10th in home runs, OBP, OPS or SLG.
Pick: NRFI (-120 @ FanDuel Sportsbook, Bet365)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Erick Fedde vs. Bryce Miller
Cardinals right-hander Erick Fedde is quietly having the best season of his major league career, especially when you consider a majority of his year was spent as a member of the White Sox. Fedde holds a 3.43 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, making his hay by limiting hard contact.
His hard-hit% and average exit velocity rank among the top third of all pitchers, and he sits above the 40th percentile in all other categories aside from chase% and whiff%. Fedde gets the easiest matchup on the board this evening, against a putrid Mariners offense ranked 24th or worse in OBP, OPS and SLG, and dead-last in AVG.
Teams would kill to have a back-end starter like second-year man Bryce Miller in their rotation, with a rock-solid 3.30 ERA and phenomenal 1.00 WHIP. Miller's xERA, xBA and K% all rank in at least the 60th percentile, and his 5.9% walk rate tells you he has incredible command.
Miller is in outstanding form right now, surrendering zero earned runs in four separate starts of at least six innings since the beginning of July, and an xwOBA that grades out well above league average over his past 100 batters faced. Miller has a pretty favorable matchup this evening against a middling Cardinals offense that has struggled in the power department this year, ranking 20th or worse in OPS, SLG and home runs.
Pick: NRFI (-130 @ FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Friday: