MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks: Friday (Padres vs. Dodgers)
There is only one postseason baseball game to be played Friday evening - a winner-take-all matchup between the Dodgers and Padres to determine who will take on the red-hot Mets in the National League Championship Series (NLCS). Normally, I like to fade these offenses at all costs due to the firepower at the top of each batting order. However, the uniqueness of an elimination game for both teams provides a little pressure on each side, and I think we have a spectacular pitching duel to keep the offenses at bay in the first inning. At any rate, this is a must-watch contest between two teams that don't like each other, who I have pegged as the top two teams in the National League.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
2024 NRFI Record: 62-48 (+3.85 Units)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres
Starting Pitchers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Yu Darvish
The Dodgers will send out Yoshinobu Yamamoto to start this game. He has the chance to completely redeem his disappointing injury-filled regular season by showing up tonight when the Dodgers need him the most. Though his season was shortened, Yamamoto displayed his potential with a 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. His advanced metrics backed up his on-field performance, as he ranked 73rd in xERA, 62nd in both whiff% and average exit velocity and in the 79th percentile or better in ground ball rate, BB%, chase% and K%. While this Padres lineup has been dynamite all year long and Yamamoto has not fared well against them in three starts this season, I trust his pedigree and ability to make adjustments to navigate through the top part of the order for a clean opening frame.
The Padres counter with Yu Darvish, a pitcher who is also looking to salvage an injury-plagued 2024 campaign. Darvish is no stranger to the bright lights of the postseason and proved it in his first start against the Dodgers, surrendering only three hits and one earned run in a strong seven-inning performance. Darvish's numbers were true to form during the regular season, rocking a very respectable 3.31 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with an xERA and xBA that ranked over the 60th percentile and a BB% and chase% that came in over the 70th percentile. While the Dodgers have an extremely explosive offense, they do see their numbers dip against right-handed pitchers, and there are question marks surrounding former MVP Freddie Freeman's availability for this game. Darvish is the exact guy the Padres want to start in this game. I trust his experience and pedigree to have another great start this evening.
Pick: NRFI (-120 @ BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook)
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