MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks: Mariners, Marlins, Brewers, Twins (Tuesday)
This Tuesday offers some great opportunities in the NRFI market, and I’ve identified two games with teams that all rank below league average in nearly all hitting categories. One of the games features the premier pitching matchup of the night, in my opinion, with Corbin Burnes facing off against Pablo Lopez. The other game will showcase two teams in their worst hitting splits against two very capable starting pitchers in, Edward Cabrera and George Kirby, in a very unfavorable hitting environment. Both games are also in line with my recent trend of backing successful teams in the NRFI market, as the Twins and Marlins both rank in the top-5 in that category.
2023 NRFI (21-18, -0.85 Units)
Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Minnesota Twins vs. Milwaukee Brewers – NRFI (-125)
Pablo Lopez has been really good this season, helping to stabilize a Twins rotation that really struggled last year, and his numbers suggest that he’s actually been a little unlucky. His xERA of 3.34 is nearly a full run lower than his actual ERA and ranks in the top quartile of the league. He’s not getting hit hard, ranking in the 76th percentile in average exit velo and xBA, and he’s generating the swing and miss as his whiff%, chase rate, and K% all rank above the 77th percentile. He’ll be taking on a Brewers lineup that has struggled mightily to generate offensive production, ranking 25th or worse in BA, OBP, OPS, and SLG, so I love his matchup in this spot and expect him to get off to a clean start.
On the other side, we have the perennial Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes getting the ball for Milwaukee. Burnes has continued to cement his position as one of the premier pitchers in the National League, with Statcast metrics that compare eerily similar to that of Lopez. His 3.31 xERA also ranks in the top quartile, and he avoids hard contact with the best of them. His average exit velo, hard hit % and xBA all rank at least in the 80th percentile, and his xSLG and barrel % are both good for at least the 73rd percentile. His chase rate and whiff% are both well above league average, and he’ll be taking on a Twins lineup that has also really disappointed this year, ranking in the bottom 10 in BA, AVG, and OPS. The Twins are a top-5 team in terms of NRFI success in 2023, and I think this dynamite pitching matchup will lead to that trend continuing in tonight’s affair.
Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins – NRFI (-115)
George Kirby has been rock solid for the Mariners this year, posting a 3.50 ERA (3.56 xERA ranks in the top 1/3 of the league) and a 1.11 WHIP. He excels at not allowing free baserunners, walking a ridiculously low 2% of the batters he faces, and his barrel % and chase rate both come in above the 65th percentile. His xWOBA is well above league average in his last 250 plate appearances, and he’ll be dealing with a Marlins offense that fares much worse in this matchup against RHP. Miami is a middling offensive team (with many of their numbers being boosted by the insane average of Luis Arraez), but they do not possess a ton of pop, ranking in the bottom 10 in 2B and HR.
Edward Cabrera is almost the polar opposite of George Kirby, a young pitcher with electric stuff that struggles with control issues from time to time. The Mariners rank just outside of the top 10 in walks taken in 2023, so I’m a little less worried about his command in this one, and his other underlying metrics are very good. His xBA and xSLG both rank comfortably above the 70th percentile, as do his whiff% and chase rate. He’ll also be getting the benefit of dealing to the Mariners in their worse hitting splits against RHP, so I really like his matchup here if he’s able to avoid the free pass. The Marlins rank #1 in the MLB by a wide margin in NRFI success rate at 67%, and T-Mobile Park has ranked dead last in offensive park factors across the MLB since 2021. I think we have a great chance to keep the hot streak going and cash both of these plays this Tuesday evening.
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