MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks: Mets vs. Brewers (Thursday)
The playoffs are finally among us. Despite three of the Wild Card Series' ending after two games, the New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers face off tonight in a winner-take-all game. For those unaware, NRFI stands for No Runs First Inning. It's a popular betting market where gamblers wager on whether the first inning of an MLB game will end with zero runs scored by either team. Pretty simple. These bets heavily depend on the starting pitchers and consider factors like pitcher stats, team tendencies, ballpark conditions and weather.
Some teams consistently score early, while others struggle. NRFI bets are the best because they're quick - sometimes you'll know the outcome within minutes. If you've done your research, NRFI bets can provide an edge over other markets. I'm here to help provide that edge. As always, shop around for the best odds and be on the lookout for lineup announcements, which can change a lot.
With only one game today, let's do a deep dive into the first inning for this National League Wild Card series finale.
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Team View
- MLB NRFI/YRFI Cheat Sheet - Matchup View
- MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
- MLB Consensus Odds
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Thursday's Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Last Time: 2-1 | MLB Season: 29-20 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
Starting Pitchers: Jose Quintana vs. Tobias Myers
Let me start by saying what a treat, eh? How rude of the six other teams to finish the first round of these baseball playoffs in a sweep. It was quite kind of Milwaukee to make a late comeback and snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
In the first two games of the series, there has been a lot of scoring and runs have been tallied in the first inning in both games. Brewers hitters have been hot with Brice Turang going 3-for-5 in the leadoff spot in Game 1 with young superstar Jackson Chourio going 2-for-4 in both games. Yesterday's game featured more of the same with both teams scoring in the opening frame with Chourio staying hot and homering to lead off the Brewers’ offense. With the southpaw going for New York in Jose Quintana, I'd expect Chourio to lead off again tonight. His stats are promising, batting .295 when leading off an inning while slugging over 1.000 when batting in the first inning and when facing the pitcher for the first time in a game. He's a dangerous man.
But it's not like a first-inning run is a guarantee here. As mentioned, Quintana takes the bump for the Mets. He has been stellar of late, allowing two runs in his last 25.0 innings, good for a 0.72 ERA in his last four starts. His last start was against the Brewers just five days ago, holding them scoreless in the opening frame after allowing a first-inning single to, you guessed it, Chourio. On the season, Quintana is solid to start with a 3.19 first-inning ERA. The problem is that the projected top three batters in the Brewers order - Chourio, Blake Perkins and William Contreras - are a lifetime 7-for-14 against Quintana. Not great for limiting runs.
On the other side of this game, Tobias Myers takes the bump. Coincidentally, his last outing was also in the same game mentioned before, hurling four scoreless innings against New York. Myers has also held his own to open games with a 3.60 first-inning ERA. After facing him only once, the projected top three of the Mets lineup, in a small sample size, are 0-for-4 against Myers. The rookie has allowed a .731 OPS to lefties compared to a .634 to righties while facing off against the best non-Shohei Ohtani MVP candidate in Francisco Lindor to open his pitching today.
After both games resulted in early-inning scoring, I'm surprised to see where the odds sit for Yes Runs First Inning (YRFI). It's a clean slate when it comes to the playoffs. On the Milwaukee side, the hitters are experienced and have hit Quintana quite well. Myers will make his first career playoff start and is facing one of the best baseball players in an elimination game. I have to imagine there will be some nerves and plenty of runs, starting in the first inning.
Play: YRFI (+114)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Thursday: