MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/21)
Betting whether or not a run will be scored in the first inning is a fun wager with a quick outcome. Let’s check out our favorites for today.
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Friday’s Best No Run First Inning (NRFI) Bets
2023 NRFI Season Record (7-4, +1.36 Units)
Minnesota Twins vs. Washington Nationals - NRFI (-115 BetMGM)
This matchup features two bottom-10 teams in terms of runs scored this season and will be played at Target Field, a below-average ballpark in overall runs scored and home runs hit (22nd in offensive park factor overall). The Twins will be starting RHP Tyler Mahle, whose 4.11 2023 ERA is pretty deceiving and significantly higher than his xERA of 3.35. He’s walking less than 9% of the batters he faces and is getting a lot of swing-and-misses, as he’s above the 65th percentile in Whiff%, chase rate, and K%. He’s not getting hit particularly hard either, as his average exit velo and xSLG rank above the 60th percentile. The Nats have one of the most anemic offenses in the MLB, scoring less than 3.5 runs per game, so I expect Mahle to make quick work of them early.
The Nationals will send out Trevor Williams, a right-hander who has excelled in generating soft contact this year. He does not miss bats in the same way that Mahle does, but his average exit velo and hard hit% are both in the top 17th percentile in the league, and he’s walking fewer than 5% of the batters he faces. His style of pitching to contact bodes well against a Twins lineup that has been surprisingly sluggish this season, as Minnesota ranks 20th or worse in BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS. I like Williams’ ability to avoid barrels, which will help him navigate through the top of the Twins lineup.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres - NRFI (-102 FanDuel)
This game features two slightly more competent offenses than the first, but the pitching matchup should be excellent. Seth Lugo has converted from a long reliever to a starting pitcher and has been good for the Padres this season, pitching to a 2-0 record with a 2.70 ERA. He has potentially the most dynamite curveball in the game (98th percentile spin rate), which helps him rank above league average in K%, average exit velocity, and barrel%. He’s always had terrific control of the strike zone, never having a season where he walked over 10% of the batters he faced. I like his chances to have a clean inning against an Arizona lineup that ranks 26th in the league in OBP.
This also gives us an angle to back Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks, who I love to bet on any way that I can. Gallen’s 2.73 xERA ranks in the 83rd percentile, and his 0.95 WHIP is phenomenal. His advanced metrics are great, ranking in the top third in the league in xBA, xSLG, barrel %, and whiff %. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is a stellar 5.6 to 1, as he’s only allowed five batters to reach via the free pass this season. Although the Padres have an electric offense on paper, they have been pretty lackluster to begin the season (granted, they have been without the services of Tatis Jr.). The Padres rank 25th in runs scored per game, 28th in BA, and 22nd in OBP and OPS. Gallen continues his hot start against this Padres team that has struggled to find its offensive identity.
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