MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Friday (4/28)

Predicting what will happen in the first inning of a baseball game is a fun wager that is settled very quickly. We have a couple of our favorites for Friday’s slate.

Friday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

2023 NRFI Record (10-5, +3.09 Units)

Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs NRFI (-130 @ Caesars)

This matchup will feature Marcus Stroman of the Cubs vs. Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins, two pitchers that I have successfully backed in NRFI spots this season.

Stroman has had a resurgent 2023 campaign, pitching to the tune of a 2.17 ERA (3.46 xERA) and a 1.00 WHIP. His barrel% ranks in the 90th percentile, which has resulted in his average exit velo, K%, and xSLG ranking in the top one-third of all pitchers. I like him to continue his success and get off to a good start against a sluggish Marlins offense that ranks second-to-last in baseball in runs scored per game and comes in at 20th or worse in OPS, SLG, OBP, and HR.

Meanwhile, Jesus Luzardo seems to be yet another stud starting pitcher that the Marlins have developed. The 25-year-old lefty has posted a 3.62 ERA on the young season, which is actually higher than his xERA of 3.44 (68th percentile). Nearly every single one of his advanced metrics grades out as well above league average, ranking in the top one-third of baseball in average exit velo, K%, xBA, chase rate, and whiff%. His xSLG, hard hit%, and BB% are also comfortably above the 50th percentile of all pitchers.

Though the Cubs’ offense has been nothing to scoff at, I like what I've seen from Luzardo and trust him to have a clean opening frame. Additionally, LoanDepot Park is not particularly hitter-friendly, ranking well below the league average in terms of offensive park factors and home runs allowed.

---

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners NRFI (-110 @ Caesars)

Friday will feature some really great pitching matchups, and I think that this game takes the cake for the best one, with Luis Castillo facing off against Alek Manoah.

Manoah has admittedly struggled to begin the 2023 season, but I think most of that can be accounted for by his adjustments to the new pace of play regulations. Manoah's last start was his best one by far, tossing seven innings of shutout ball in only 85 pitches against the Yankees, allowing only two hits and one walk. That outing was much more representative of the fringe Cy Young candidate that we saw last season when he ranked above the 70th percentile in average exit velo, hard hit%, barrel%, xERA, xSLG, and BB%. I expect Manoah to round into form as he becomes more comfortable with the new rules. I love his matchup today against a slightly underwhelming Mariners lineup that ranks 20th or worse in baseball in BA, OPS, SLG, OBP, and HR.

On the other side, Luis Castillo has continued to be one of the best pitchers that the MLB has to offer. He boasts a stellar 1.52 ERA (2.72 xERA isn't too shabby, either) with a 0.81 WHIP, with nearly all of his metrics rating off the charts. He ranks in the 70th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, xERA, barrel%, whiff%, chase rate, K%, and BB%. The Blue Jays do have a pretty formidable top of the batting order, but I like the fact that Castillo is right-handed to help neutralize some of those sluggers. I foresee a fantastic pitching matchup between two top-of-the-rotation arms, and I think the names in each respective lineup are offering some extra value at this price.

Check out our other best bets for Friday:

• MLB Player To Hit A Home Run Odds, Picks & Predictions
• MLB Player Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NBA Playoffs First Basket Scorer Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NHL Playoffs Best Bets, Picks & Predictions