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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/17)

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We’ve had a bit of a rough stretch in the last few picks, but today is a new day and we have some exciting games to choose from. Today is Patriot’s Day in Boston, which means an early start to the Red Sox game. Typically, these games have been high scoring and for that reason, we won’t be taking it as an NRFI bet.

Season to Date: 3-6

Monday's Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

San Francisco Giants at Miami Marlins 6:40 ET

This is one of the best matchups of the day from the pitching side, with the Marlins sending Jesus Luzardo to the mound. While Sandy Alcantara is still the team’s ace on paper, Luzardo has easily been their best arm thus far in 2023. The Giants have a wRC+ of 49 against left-handed pitching thus far and while they have recently added Darin Ruf, who has historically hit well against lefties, they are still a below-average offense.

The newly-extended Logan Webb gets the ball for the Giants and while the Marlins do not have massive splits like the Giants do, they have a well below-average offense. Webb’s numbers look worse than they are at this point primarily due to home runs. The Marlins’ offense is not full of elite power hitters and the ballpark makes this an attractive matchup for Webb. Throughout his career, he has also allowed a 0.285 wOBA the first time through the order. This all aligns well for both starting pitchers.

Bet: No Runs First Inning (-150)

Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals 7:45 ET

This one takes a slightly different run in terms of the on-paper matchup. The home team will start Jack Flaherty and the righty has some impressive numbers to begin the season. However, there are some massive red flags in his profile. While the sample is small, Flaherty has a 21.5% BB rate, which is even higher than his K%. This is usually not the type of pitcher I bet on for these NRFI bets, but he has paired that with a lack of hits allowed. Arizona also has the lowest BB rate in all of baseball at 4.9%. I am betting that the low walk rate of the Diamondbacks helps to ease some of Flaherty’s issues and allows him to post a clean first inning.

Merrill Kelly gets the ball for Arizona and amazingly, he has a similar issue to Flaherty. Kelly’s BB rate is at 18.8%, which is extremely out of line with his career numbers. Kelly has actually succeeded throughout his career due to his ability to limit walks. The Cardinals’ offense is one of the league’s best on paper, with a wRC+ of 110, but they have struggled to turn that offensive ability into runs. They are top ten by wRC+ but are in the bottom half of the league in terms of runs scored per game. I believe that Kelly will get back to his regular low-walk-rate ways and the Cardinals’ offensive woes continue long enough for Kelly to get through the first clean.

Bet: No Runs First Inning (-115)

Check out our other best bets for Monday:


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