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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (4/24)

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We have eleven games on the slate today with a wide range of pitching matchups. NRFI bets have been a bit of tough sledding this season; however, the process and logic are still solid and we must soldier on.

Season Record: 4-9

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Monday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

All odds From DraftKings Sportsbook

Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles – 6:35 p.m. ET

Dean Kramer takes the ball for the Orioles in this one. Kremer has gotten off to an extremely rough start in 2023, mostly due to an HR issue. He has allowed over two HRs per nine, and a lack of strikeouts has exacerbated the issue. However, the game is taking place in Baltimore, which has become a bit more of a pitcher’s park since the change to left field. The Red Sox do have a few lefties early in the lineup, most notably Rafael Devers, but I believe that Kramer can build off his last good outing and keep them from scoring in the first.

Chris Sale gets the start on the other side, and his season has been one of rough numbers masking actually solid performance. The walks are high, and the HR rate is also abnormally high, but the K numbers are off the charts. Baltimore does have an above-average offense against lefties, but the group of lefties they have faced thus far do not match the upside of someone like Sale. His last start was his best of the season, and if he continues it this time out, he may be returning to his ace-like form. If that version of Sale returns, he will not issue keeping a clean first inning.

Pick: -120

Kansas City Royals at Arizona Diamondbacks 9:40 p.m. ET

Today’s slate of games has two plus-money NRFI bets. This is one of them and easily my favorite of the two. The offenses are subpar, and while the pitchers are not elite, they just need a clean first inning to make this bet work. Tommy Henry is the first pitcher we are going to talk about, and he is making his 2023 debut. Henry showed an interesting skillset despite poor results in 2022, with more than a K per inning with a slightly elevated walk rate. His high ERA was driven by an insanely low LOB% which should revert to somewhat normal. The Royals also have an 89 wRC+ against left-handers in 2023, well below average.

Brad Keller has had a fascinating season thus far. He has surpassed the K/9 numbers from back in the days when he had above-average results, but the walk rate has ballooned. I believe that he will manage to keep the K gains while improving on the walk numbers. If he can do these two things, he has the potential to be a sub-4 ERA pitcher. He gets to face a middle-of-the-road Diamondbacks offense that also has the lowest BB% in all of baseball. They match up extremely well to help improve his faults. This all speaks to a good chance for Keller to throw a clean first inning, and at plus money, this has the looks of a great bet.

Pick: +110

Check out our other best bets for Monday:

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