MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/1)

As the calendar flips to May, we continue to see some of the same trends we saw early. Offense is most certainly up and while it is difficult to decipher exactly what rule change is the main driver, the rules appear to be having the desired effect. This has made our NRFI bets a bit difficult but a new month means a new start. Let’s dive into today’s games.

Monday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Season to date: 7-10

Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees – 7:05 ET

This matchup contains two of the worst offenses in the game to this point. The Yankees are throwing Domingo German, who has been a different pitcher in 2023 than in any of the previous seasons. Additionally, he has been a bit up and down, with two great starts and three sub-par ones. He has had a massive HR issue, but this is a perfect matchup for him as the Guardians have a wRC+ of 85, which is tied for the fourth lowest in the league. Similarly, they have the fourth-lowest ISO in the league. German should be able to keep a clean first.

Cal Quantrill goes for Cleveland, and he has similarly poor overall numbers in 2023. The Yankees are likely to be without Aaron Judge, and they already have a bottom-10 offense with a 90 wRC+. This is mostly driven by the bottom half of their order, but in recent games, their entire offense is struggling. In his career, Quantrill has been extremely effective early in the game, allowing a .277 wOBA the first time through the order. This all lines up well for Quantrill here.

Pick: NRFI -115

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Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals – 7:05 ET

On a small slate like today, we have to take some gambles we typically might not love on a normal day. That is this bet for me, despite my interest and appreciation for Mackenzie Gore’s season thus far. Gore has one massive red flag on an otherwise elite profile thus far, and that is too many walks. He has over 11 K/9 with a sub-1 HR/9, but his BB/9 is over 5. While the walks terrify me, the strikeout skills are so great that I think he can keep it clean in the first. The Cubs do have an elite offense against lefties with the second-best wRC+, but with the other options for today, I’ll take a chance on this side.

On the other end of the game, Drew Smyly takes the ball. Washington is actually an above-average offense against lefties with a wRC+ of 108. Smyly has been excellent thus far, with just under a strikeout per inning with a low walk total, and has been limiting HRs at an impressive rate. In his career, his wOBA the first time through the order is 0.303, good enough for us to trust him in this matchup. While these two matchups are not exactly ideal in my eyes, they are both solid enough for me to bet that both pitchers can keep a clean first inning.

Pick: NRFI -125

Check out our other best bets for Monday:

• MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions
• MLB Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NBA Playoffs First Basket Scorer Prop Bet Odds, Picks & Predictions
• NHL Playoffs Same Game Parlay Odds, Picks & Predictions