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MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks & Predictions: Monday (5/22)

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We actually have a fairly full slate for Monday with a total of twelve games on the schedule. After a rough beginning to our season, we have continued to find our groove with our NRFI bets. Let’s take a look at our favorites for today’s games.

Season to Date: 15-14

Monday’s Best No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Bets

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies – 6:40 ET

Zach Wheeler has gotten off to a rough start in 2023 with an ERA over four. This is completely out of line with his career norms, as he has actually posted three straight sub-three ERA seasons. However, it seems largely due to abysmal luck. His FIP is 2.41 and he seems to be getting destroyed by poor LOB% numbers. He has a LOB% of 64.3%, which is well below league average. In his career, Wheeler has been excellent the first time through the order with a 0.263 wOBA allowed. He should be able to get back toward his ERA estimators.

Tommy Henry starts for the Diamondbacks and this bet takes into account the Phillies’ terrible numbers against lefties. They have an 83 wRC+ against southpaws, which is bottom five in the league. Henry hasn’t shown much in his 2023 sample but there were interesting skills in the minors. He has struggled the first time through the order in his career, but this is really a bet against the Phillies and their inability to hit off lefties.

Pick: -115

Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals – 7:40 ET

Brady Singer has been downright dreadful in 2023, but ERA estimators like FIP paint a slightly rosier picture. He has struggled a bit with walks and homers but nothing too extreme, and he is getting crushed by a 55% LOB%. Singer has posted back-to-back solid starts and appears to be trending in the right direction. He has a decent .310 wOBA allowed the first time through the order in his career and can hopefully keep that rolling against the Tigers, who have the fourth-worst offense.

The Royals, however, are not much better off at third-worst. Unlike Singer, Michael Lorenzen has actually been excellent in 2023, limiting walks better than he has in the rest of his career. He does not generate a ton of swing and miss but low walks and groundballs can help to overcome too few strikeouts. He has actually struggled early in games this season, with an elevated wOBA allowed, but he is facing this bottom-of-the-barrel offense and this should allow him to keep a clean first frame.

Pick: -115

Check out our other best bets for Monday:

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